3 factions that matter the most to any border deal

Senators say they’re inches away from a bipartisan deal on border security measures that are designed to shake loose a multi-billion-dollar aid package for Ukraine and Israel. But as hard as the final Is and Ts are to dot and cross, getting the votes to send any agreement to the president’s desk may well prove to be just as difficult. The three negotiators, Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), James Lankford (R-Okla.) and Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.), say that an agreement among them is the hardest part. But three critical groups of senators are going to make the difference between implosion, a squeaker vote that barely clears 60 – and the kind of robust total that will add pressure on the House to act. The three factions we’re watching most closely: Progressives: Sen. Alex Padilla (D-Calif.), along with Sens. Ben Ray Luján (D-N.M.), Bob Menendez (D-N.J.), Mazie Hirono (D-Hawaii), Ed Markey (D-Mass.), Jeff Merkley (D-Ore.), Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.) and Ron Wyden (D-Ore.), spoke out many weeks ago to oppose changes to asylum policy that didn’t include more left-leaning ideas they’ve fought for, such as a pathway to citizenship for immigrants. Warren is among the members of that group who later signaled they won’t reject a GOP-blessed deal reflexively because they want to unlock Ukraine aid. Still, it’s easy to see some or all of them opposing the agreement as too conservative. “[My decision] depends on what the border measures are like,” Warren said Tuesday. “The importance of getting aid to Ukraine cannot be overstated. They were on the frontlines fighting for democracy. And they’re running out of everything they need to wage that battle.” Conservatives: Sens. Rand Paul (R-Ky.), Mike Lee (R-Utah), Josh Hawley (R-Mo.) often oppose emergency spending bills and are against sending additional aid to Ukraine. None are expected to support a future bipartisan deal – but the extent of their opposition matters a lot. Whether by forcing the consideration of polarizing amendments or holding up floor consideration, conservative critics could easily turn Senate passage of a border-Ukraine deal into a brutal slog. These are also the senators for whom former President Donald Trump’s influence will matter most. If Trump comes out against a deal, this group will have even more motivation to throw obstacles in its path. (Several of these Senate conservatives are planning a Wednesday press conference to discuss their views on the still-unreleased deal.) Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-Ala.), another conservative who is against additional Ukraine aid and thinks the border component will fall short, told POLITICO that he spoke to Trump about it on Monday. “He said he’d seen the problems [at the border] up close and personal when he was president, and [that] for the last four years, [they] have even gotten worse,” Tuberville said of Trump’s take on the border. Anti-Trump Republicans: Party leaders will look to moderate Republicans who have shown a willingness to break with Trump, such as Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska), Susan Collins (R-Maine) and Mitt Romney (R-Utah), to help get the deal done. That doesn’t mean they’re going to be automatic cheerleaders, though. Collins told reporters Tuesday that the text she’s seen of the potential deal included areas marked “TBD” and elements where “policy disagreements” clearly remained. Then there’s the mood: Fatigue over the dragged-out border negotiations is driving some senators to palpable displays of frustration. Sen. John Kennedy (R-La.) characterized the situation as “a freak show.” “It’s time to land this plane, and let’s make a decision and let’s vote. You’ve got a choice: You can vote yes, you can vote no or you can jump the rail. But it’s time,” Kennedy said. Others preached patience. Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said a potential deal is perhaps “more complicated than people really have appreciated.” But he also acknowledged that negotiators’ optimism about text – coupled with the lack of that specific language so far – “sort of feeds people’s natural suspicions and conspiracy theories, because they are guessing about what’s actually in it.” Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) was sharper, urging her colleagues to “give the courtesy to individuals that have been tasked by their conferences to focus on this,” referring to Sinema, Murphy and Lankford. “It’s so easy for people to sit back and take potshots,” Murkowski added, “and say it’s not good enough.” — Daniella Diaz and Ursula Perano, with assists from Jordain Carney, Caitlin Emma and Anthony Adragna A message from Instagram: Parents should be able to decide which apps are right for their teens. Apps can teach teens skills or ignite their creativity. But with access to so many apps, parents should have a say in which ones their teens download. That’s why Instagram wants to work with Congress to require parental approval wherever teens under 16 download apps. Learn more. GOOD EVENING! Welcome to Inside Congress, the play-by-play guide to all things Capitol Hill, on this Tuesday, Jan. 23, where we have to admit we laughed at this Trump troll. ERNST & YOUNG … AND THE OTHERS Trump may be closer than ever to locking up the GOP nomination as New Hampshire holds its primary, but as Burgess so recently reported, not every Senate Republican is rallying around him quickly. Sen. Todd Young (Ind.) on Tuesday became the latest Republican senator to declare he’s not falling in line: “Are you trying to get a gut check — am I joining everyone else in joining the Trump establishment? Hell no,” Young told reporters Tuesday when asked about a Trump endorsement. He’s not the only holdout we’re watching closely. Here are a few more: Sen. Joni Ernst (Iowa), the No. 4 GOP leader, spoke highly of Nikki Haley even after Trump won her home state’s caucus. Minority Whip John Thune has said he doesn’t plan to weigh in until after the New Hampshire primary. Thune originally endorsed Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) before he dropped out of the race. Sens. Bill Cassidy (R-La.), Collins and Murkowski, all of whom voted to convict Trump during his second impeachment trial, would truly shock the Capitol by endorsing him. (Romney, for his part, has already vowed not to.) — Daniella Diaz GROWING IN THE GOLDEN STATE: POLITICO California is growing, reinforcing our role as the indispensable insider source for reporting on politics, policy and power. From the corridors of power in Sacramento and Los Angeles to the players and innovation hubs in Silicon Valley, we’re your go-to for navigating the political landscape across the state. Exclusive scoops, essential daily newsletters, unmatched policy reporting and insights — POLITICO California is your key to unlocking Golden State politics. LEARN MORE. GOP BLOWBACK FOR ACB Some conservatives are fuming at Supreme Court Justice Amy Coney Barrett, feeling double-crossed by her recent decision to side with the court’s liberal bloc in allowing the Biden administration to remove razor wire installed by Texas along the nation’s southern border. “I was surprised but also disappointed,” Sen. J.D. Vance (R-Ohio) said in an interview. “She wouldn’t be able to be on the bench were it not for the political sacrifices of a lot of people who I think feel quite betrayed by that opinion.” Sen. Mike Lee (R-Utah), a Judiciary Committee member, summed up his response in a post on X, formerly known as Twitter: “Et tu, ACB?” Barrett was confirmed by the Senate in the waning days of the Trump administration, with conservatives fighting particularly hard to push her past unanimous Democratic opposition. Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) also voted against her. Still, other senators were more reluctant to knock Barrett herself even as they expressed frustration with the decision. “Judges aren’t supposed to make political decisions. They’re supposed to interpret the law,” Sen. John Cornyn (R-Texas) said. “I was a judge for 13 years. I don’t get surprised by judicial decisions.” For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.