Morning Report — Senate in overtime for long-shot border bill

There is a reason the Senate is called the “cooling saucer.” It is rarely swift, and getting a Senate floor vote next week on what is still an outline of proposed changes to immigration law and funding for Ukraine before leaving Washington for the year would be a Mach 4 miracle. And 100 senators would have to agree to race toward a vote before Christmas, which is not their basic DNA. Nevertheless, President Biden says he’s open to compromise, although his team and Senate negotiators are still dissecting border proposals and not yet poring over draft legislative language. Majority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) announced that his colleagues will have to cut their planned holiday recess short by returning to work Monday, giving negotiators more time to craft a possible immigration policy deal, which House lawmakers demanded in exchange for additional U.S. assistance to Ukraine. It seems likely that the future of more than $100 billion in aid to Ukraine and Israel still will be uncertain into 2024. House lawmakers wrapped up their business and left for the year, many still adamant about opposing additional spending for Ukraine, whether leveraged for immigration reforms or not. But the ongoing negotiations may still open a door to Senate strides next week. ADVERTISING ▪ The Hill: Tensions rise among Democrats over looming border deal. ▪ The Wall Street Journal: An emerging border deal alarms progressives and conservatives. The border policy discussions are akin to puzzle pieces — complex and conjoined. Chief negotiators Sens. Chris Murphy (D-Conn.), Kyrsten Sinema (I-Ariz.) and James Lankford (R-Okla.) began to sound more optimistic about their progress on immigration by midweek and Ukraine’s needs moved Schumer to see how far the group might go. Negotiators want to include new expulsion authority at the border to allow the government to turn away migrants who ask for asylum, akin to the pandemic-era policy rolled out under the previous administration and known as Title 42, the Journal reported. It also would require that more asylum seekers are held in immigration detention for the duration of their cases and would expand the government’s ability to rapidly deport someone without a trial so long as they have been in the country less than two years, according to the Journal. The package does not include “Dreamers,” undocumented migrants who entered the U.S. as children and qualified for protection from deportation under what began as an Obama-era enforcement waiver and continues to be challenged in court. Sinema told Politico on Thursday that she sees movement. “I can see the deal. We have a lot to go to get there. But I can see it. …There was a time when we were not making progress. It was feeling stalled,” Sinema said. “There’s progress—it’s just exceptionally slow,” Lankford, the lead negotiator for Republicans, told the Journal. 3 THINGS TO KNOW TODAY ▪ The Hill and leading election results provider Decision Desk HQ are launching the “2024 Election Center” for users who want to explore specific election scenarios and predictions, powered by Decision Desk HQ’s wealth of polls and historical data. The key: The Hill/Decision Desk HQ Polling Average, “the go-to metric for consumers to use through the election,” says Bob Cusack, The Hill’s editor in chief. ▪ Former Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s exit interview with The Hill: Rep. Matt Gaetz, former President Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson. ▪ Rep. James Comer, a multimillionaire farmer from Kentucky, who leads the Hunter Biden investigation and impeachment probe with fellow Republicans, has his own shell company and complicated friends. National Defense Authorization: House sent an $886 billion defense policy blueprint to Biden for his signature. It includes the biggest pay raise for troops in more than two decades (The Hill) and it includes an extension through April 19 of the controversial Section 702 of the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act, which some lawmakers oppose because the warrantless spying can ensnare Americans. LEADING THE DAY © America’s Voice / Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of pro-immigrant advocacy group America’s Voice. FOUR QUESTIONS 👉 Morning Report spoke with Vanessa Cárdenas, executive director of America’s Voice, a leading immigration advocacy organization based in Washington, to get her emailed take this week on White House-Senate talks about border policies. Alexis: On Tuesday, you wrote the White House is pursuing “a flat-out dumb path” toward immigration and border changes, which you described as “policy and political malpractice.” Strong words. Let me ask for a prediction: Do you believe President Biden’s recent offer to the GOP of “significant compromises on the border” is likely to unlock congressional approval of more aid for Ukraine, as he hopes? I’m not in the prediction game but I’ll note that we have a two-decade track record of watching the Republican Party move the goalposts and negotiate in bad faith on immigration. Even if the White House and Senate agree on policies that, to our eyes, are pulled straight from [Trump adviser] Stephen Miller’s wish list, Speaker Mike Johnson and the House want even more, mainly their extreme HR-2 proposal. Our immigration system is broken. We’ve said that for decades and we urgently need to modernize it. But the notion that only Republicans get to define what policies should be on the table, that we should shoehorn that process into a supplemental funding debate, or that we should tie immigration to support for our Ukrainian allies is not the way to do policy on such a complex issue. Alexis: You’ve long said the administration needed an immigration strategy and should “lean in.” What’s the administration’s immigration strategy, as you understand it this week? Whiplash between policy directions and a lack of a well-stated and consistently articulated larger strategy unfortunately characterizes this administration’s immigration record. I don’t understand what the strategy was behind putting on the table these extreme proposals. Did they think the GOP would be satisfied? Why on earth would they think that? Alexis: Many Americans give Biden low marks for his handling of the border and immigration. What’s he risking, in your view, by reportedly being open to GOP calls for new authority for migrant expulsions without asylum screenings, expanded immigration detention and more deportations? We think they are misreading both the policies and politics. On the policies — based on what we hear they are considering — the administration risks enacting permanent policy changes, the most restrictive in decades, perhaps the most restrictive in a century. These include renewed detention of kids, nationwide “expedited removal” (abbreviated deportations with limited access to legal counsel) and the end of legal parole programs. Such changes would be cruel, ineffective and shouldn’t be short-handed as “border security.” We think these would compound, not alleviate, border chaos and pressures. Meanwhile on politics, embracing Republicans’ demands and Trump-Miller policies wouldn’t ratchet down ugly anti-immigrant attacks and related falsehoods that are likely to be featured by Republicans in 2024. The president isn’t going to win any new voters for Democrats and meanwhile threatens to dampen enthusiasm among the electorate he’s looking to energize. Younger voters, women, Latinos, progressives and other people of color do not support the one-sided approach of opposing immigration and expanding deportations. These are key constituencies Democrats need during a reelection campaign. Alexis: A majority of Americans say immigration is a “good thing” for the U.S., but more than 60 percent say they’re dissatisfied with today’s level of migration into the country. As long as public opinion remains splintered, are pro-immigrant policies backed by America’s Voice impossible to enact? Broadly, the public wants reform instead of the status quo and their desire for an orderly system and border security does not translate into majority support for deterrence-or-enforcement-only approaches, or slashing legal immigration. In January, President Biden said we cannot successfully stop people from coming, but can incentivize them to come to ports of entry and through orderly, legal channels in compliance with U.S. law. He should stick to that strategy. Despite the relentless attacks on immigration, strong majorities still support citizenship for long-time, settled immigrants like Dreamers. Democrats and the president should be confident that they’re on the side that favors legal immigration because it reduces illegal immigration. Republicans, who oppose legal immigration by and large, are the party fighting to maintain chaos and illegality. WHERE AND WHEN The House will meet briefly at 10 a.m. No votes are scheduled. The Senate will convene at 3 p.m. on Monday. The president will receive the President’s Daily Brief at 10 a.m. Biden will have lunch with Vice President Harris at 1:30 p.m. The vice president will meet with the president over lunch. She will host a holiday reception at 6 p.m. at the Naval Observatory along with her husband, Doug Emhoff. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra will be in Reno, Nev., today to visit Reno-Sparks Indian Colony Tribal Health Clinic for a roundtable discussion with health care advocates, local officials and tribal leaders at 10:45 a.m. local time. He’ll start the day with an early visit to Café con Papi in Reno to speak with local Latino leaders.     The second gentleman will participate in a fireside chat at 3:15 p.m. about countering antisemitism at the Union for Reform Judaism’s opening plenary in Washington. In the evening, he’ll join the vice president to host a holiday party. ZOOM IN POLITICS The battle for the ballots has started as the race among Democrats, independents and third-party presidential candidates has frustrated those who’d prefer to focus on Biden’s low popularity and former President Trump’s ascent, The Hill’s Hanna Trudo and Filip Timotija report.Aspirants running against establishment candidates are trying to get on state ballots, hoping to qualify in enough general election swing states to cripple the incumbent and the GOP frontrunner. Robert F. Kennedy Jr., an independent, as well as Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.), Cenk Uygur and Marianne Williamson want to legally get their names in front of voters well before the fall and are threatening to mount legal challenges in some states. © The Associated Press / Charles Krupa | Democratic presidential candidate Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) in Manchester, N.H., in October. Debating debates: Republican presidential hopefuls face a fresh slate of January debates ahead of critical nominating contests in Iowa and New Hampshire. Three planned network events offer opportunities for candidates to boost profiles in early-voting states against Trump. The Hill’s Julia Mueller reports why the events also inject some uncertainty into the contest. “Timing of the debates really matters: how close in proximity they are to actually voting. You want them to be pretty close and so that they can have an impact, but not too close where it trades off with campaigning and retail politics and things like that,” said Aaron Kall, director of the University of Michigan’s debate program. Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) this week asked Fox News host Sean Hannity to arrange a head-to-head debate that would allow the Florida GOP presidential candidate to take on Trump, who skipped four GOP-sanctioned debates. DeSantis says the frontrunner is ducking a challenge. Trump’s view is that he’s the clear leader headed toward his party’s nomination, so why debate those left behind? (The Hill). 2024 ROUNDUP ▪ Rep. Drew Ferguson (R-Ga.), who in October was mulling a House GOP leadership role, announced Thursday he won’t seek reelection. ▪ Rep. Wiley Nickel (D-N.C.) says he will not run for reelection in 2024, instead opting to explore a run for the Senate in 2026 as a result of GOP-led redistricting. ▪ New York Republicans have selected Nassau County legislator Mazi Melesa Pilip as their nominee in the special election to replace ousted Rep. George Santos (R), setting the stage for a competitive race in February. ▪ In court testimony in Michigan, Republicans tie the false elector effort to Trump’s 2020 campaign. ▪ Here’s how Trump netted evangelical votes in Iowa with help from a young Christian operative. ▪ Jewish day schools in the U.S. are dealing with an influx of Israeli students who have left their country amid the war with Hamas while also caring for American children who feel close to the conflict. ▪ Americans are ho-hum about a potential rematch of the 2020 election, according to a new poll from The Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research. Nearly 3 in 10 U.S. adults, or 28 percent, said they’re dissatisfied with the notion of Trump or Biden becoming next year’s nominees. Independents (43 percent) are more likely than Democrats (28 percent) or Republicans (20 percent) to express displeasure with both men. ▪ A Georgia jury today will continue deliberating to determine the damages former Trump lawyer Rudy Giuliani must pay after being found guilty of defaming two Georgia election workers as part of the former president’s efforts to stay in power. The former New York City mayor and prosecutor did not take the witness stand. ELSEWHERE INTERNATIONAL The United States wants Israel to shift within weeks to precision fighting against Hamas with elite commandos, not high-casualty air bombardments, to save remaining hostages and improve conditions to get aid into Gaza. Israel’s defense minister, Yoav Gallant, warned Thursday that the war could extend well into 2024 (The Hill). And Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, eyeing a path to possible political survival, says the offensive to crush Hamas will last as long as needed. Biden was asked Thursday whether he wants Israel to scale back its assault on Gaza. He responded: “I want them to be focused on how to save civilian lives. Not stop going after Hamas — but be more careful.” During a Thursday meeting in Israel, White House national security adviser Jake Sullivan told Netanyahuand other leadersthat war in Gaza needs to “transition to the next lower intensity phase in a matter of weeks, not months,” Axios reported. The rate of civilian deaths in Gaza is outpacing those of other conflict zones in the 21st century. Mounting casualties have been accompanied by a rapidly deteriorating humanitarian situation in the enclave. Sullivan arrived in Israel after discussing the Gaza situation with Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He will be in Ramallah today to meet with Mahmoud Abbas, president of the Palestinian Authority. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin and Joint Chiefs Chairman Gen. Charles Brown Jr. will meet with senior officials in Israel next week. Close to half of the air-to-ground munitions that Israel has used in Gaza against Hamas have been unguided, otherwise known as “dumb bombs.” The new assessment, compiled by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and reported by CNN, said that about 40-45 percent of the 29,000 air-to-ground munitions Israel has used since Oct. 7 have been unguided. Unguided munitions are typically less precise and can pose a greater threat to civilians, especially in a densely populated area such as Gaza, and the rate at which Israel is using the dumb bombs may be contributing to the soaring civilian death toll. UKRAINE: The European Union announced Thursday that it agreed to open membership talks for Ukraine, bringing Kyiv closer to a long-held goal. The announcement comes as U.S. aid for Ukraine has been on shaky ground due to internal divisions among House Republicans, and Ukraine gears up for another winter of war (The Washington Post). Just hours after EU leaders agreed to open membership talks, Hungary blocked a crucial European aid package for Ukraine (CNN). © The Associated Press / Alexander Zemlianichenko | Russian President Vladimir Putin at his annual news conference in Moscow on Thursday. MOSCOW: Russian President Vladimir Putin appeared confident during his annual year-end news conference in Moscow Thursday, which lasted four hours and included write-in questions from citizens. He suggested support for Ukraine from its U.S. and European allies has waned (The Hill and The New York Times). “They’re getting everything as freebies,” Putin said, referring to Western arms deliveries to Ukraine. “But these freebies can run out at some point, and it looks like they’re already starting to run out.” Schumer seized on Putin’s remarks to urge House Republicans, who finished their work for the year, to support additional U.S. spending for Ukraine in order to thwart Russia. He said deadlock in Congress left “Putin mocking our resolve” and he cast the decisions facing lawmakers as a potential turning point of history: “There is too much on the line for Ukraine, for America, for Western democracy, to throw in the towel right now,” he said. ▪ The Associated Press: How the U.S. keeps funding Ukraine’s military — even as it says it’s out of money. ▪ Reuters: Outnumbered and outgunned in the skies, Ukraine has used surface-to-air missiles to keep Russian aircraft at arm’s length. The country’s military hopes bringing F-16s to the fight will push them back farther — and keep Ukraine’s air force flying for the long term. ▪ The Wall Street Journal: Putin said Thursday that Russia wants to find a “solution” for the imprisonment of Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich and former U.S. Marine and Michigan corporate-security executive Paul Whelan, but “it’s not easy.” An agreement for release must be “mutually acceptable and must suit both sides,” he added. Gershkovich was arrested and detained in March. Whelen was imprisoned in 2018. For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.