Jan. 6 and Trump Legal Woes Provide Opening for Biden Campaign With Latinos, Univision Poll Finds

The largest national bipartisan poll of Hispanics for the 2024 election thus far this cycle finds President Joe Biden holding steady with the group but offers an opening for his campaign to exploit Donald Trump's legal issues. The Noticias Univision poll, conducted by Democratic pollster Matt Barreto, who has worked for the Biden campaign, and Republican pollster Daron Shaw, who conducts polls for Fox News and is part of their decision desk, included 1401 Latinos, with bilingual interviews and weighting of the Hispanic community according to nationwide demographics. The poll released Monday afternoon found that 57% of Latinos believe Trump encouraged the Jan. 6 rioters and attempted to stop the certification of the 2020 election and that he should be held accountable, even if it means he is convicted of a crime. Similarly, on Trump's indictment in Georgia on racketeering charges, 56% said they believe the former president encouraged state and county officials in the state to change election results and should be held accountable. The poll found that those numbers included 49% of Independents and even 22% of Republicans, offering an opportunity for the Biden campaign to message on this issue and persuade Latinos that Trump went too far. Barreto told The Messenger the findings make sense because the Jan. 6 attack on the U.S. Capitol and Georgia election interference investigation are intricately linked from the "Stop the Steal" efforts of Jan. 6 to the secret electors scheme in Georgia. Barreto, who has done polling for the White House and was part of the 2020 Biden campaign, said the numbers offer an opportunity for Biden this time around. Read More DeSantis Says GOP Will Lose if 2024 Becomes Focused on Trump Documents, Jan. 6 Trump’s Jan. 6 Indictment: A Political Scheme to Influence the Next Election The 2024 Election Is Now All About Jan. 6 Biden Campaign Launches Latino Outreach Blitz to Counter GOP Debate A list of crimes legal experts say Trump may have committed related to Jan. 6 and the 2020 election New Jan. 6 Video Shows Trump Campaign Aide Telling Police to ‘Hang’ Themselves: Report "There was an argument in 2020 that Trump looked like a strongman, but Jan. 6 hadn’t happened yet, the fake electors scheme hadn’t happened yet. Now, evidence is starting to come out that makes it very clear what Trump did was not just standard political corruption," Barreto argued. "I'm not saying it's the next Biden ad, I'm saying it's something to keep playing around with." The poll also asked Latino voters about Hunter Biden and whether they believe the president knew about his son's business dealings and did anything wrong. Thirty-three percent said he knew and did something wrong, 40% said he knew but did nothing wrong, and less than 20% said he didn't know about his son's business dealings and did nothing wrong. Sergio Garcia-Rios, Univision's director of polling and data, who unveiled the results, agreed that Jan. 6 and the Georgia indictment could have an effect on the general election with Latinos, in a way Hunter Biden may not. "It's not that some don't think Biden did something wrong, it's that Latinos think Jan. 6 and Trump's legal problems are a bigger deal," he told The Messenger. "If I steal chips from the gas station and rob a bank, they're both wrong, but do you see them as equal? No." The findings line up with a Republican-led poll from WPA Intelligence of 1,005 registered voters conducted from Sept. 15 to 19 which found Biden leading Trump by 2 points nationally, but the number jumping to 6 points if Trump is convicted. Regarding Latino voters, the poll found that it wasn't so much that Biden would gain with Latinos, but that Hispanics who were initially with Trump would be more likely to stay home and not vote. "In our poll, we found former President Trump mirroring his 2020 performance among Hispanics at the outset, reflecting deeply entrenched opinions surrounding both him and President Biden," Trevor Smith Ph. D., chief research officer for WPA Intelligence, told The Messenger. "However, if Trump were to be convicted, Hispanics were the demographic group with the most pronounced shift away from him, and he would return to his 2016 share of the Latino vote. Biden certainly has issues with Latinos, but if a jury were to find Trump guilty of a felony, a significant number of Hispanics who initially indicated they would support him would lean toward abstaining from voting altogether.” Joe Biden, Donald Trump Joe Biden, Donald TrumpANGELA WEISS,MANDEL NGAN/AFP via Getty Images Regarding the presidential horse race, the Univision poll found Biden doing better than the narrative around his Latino support has been thus far, with Biden beating Trump 58% to 31% in a hypothetical general election matchup, and beating Florida Governor Ron DeSantis 57% to 28%. While the numbers continue to show the new normal for Democrats, far shy of former president Barack Obama's high water mark of 71% with Hispanics in 2012, or even Hillary Clinton's 66% in 2016, the results provide a temporary boost to Biden who has been out early with ads and outreach to Hispanics, particularly around the economy. They also show him fairing favorably when compared with Pew numbers of validated voters from 2020, which showed he had 59% Latino support, to Trump's 38%. "The poll shows there's still a willingness to support Biden, but that might be mostly because of Trump," Garcia-Rios said. "There's still a high level of disappointment on the economy and on the general path the country is taking — I think Latinos are disappointed in general, but I think they're disappointed with both parties." Jan. 6 and the Georgia election interference indictment don't just reflect a case of deep American political corruption, Barreto said, but provide an opportunity with Hispanics "from Latin America, who are familiar with this because they have fled this." While it's early and things could change, a Republican operative involved in the 2024 primary agreed. "What happens with possible convictions — for families who fled socialism and Mexicans who fled corruption — is seeing a leader convicted of a crime reminds you of that." For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.