Second H-1B Visa Lottery Reveals Low Estimate By Immigration Service

U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services expects to accept and approve a low number of H-1B registrations from the H-1B lottery’s first selection round. USCIS officials likely believe only 50,000 or fewer H-1B registrations from the first selection earlier this year will result in approved H-1B petitions, according to a National Foundation for American Policy (NFAP) analysis of the selection rounds for the FY 2024 H-1B cap. Multiple entries for the same individuals during the H-1B registration process have contributed to the uncertainty over the H-1B selection process. Still, USCIS data show due to the low annual H-1B limit, over 75% of H-1B registrations for FY 2024 would have been rejected even if beneficiaries with multiple registrations were excluded from the lottery. The First And Second Selection Rounds For the H-1B Lottery In April 2023, USCIS reported 780,884 H-1B registrations for FY 2024, an increase of 61% over the 483,927 registrations for FY 2023. According to USCIS, H-1B registrations set a record for FY 2024 due to multiple entries for the same individuals, which will likely cause the agency to change the H-1B lottery process. USCIS uses a lottery when employers file more H-1B applications (or registrations) than the annual limit of 85,000 (65,000 plus a 20,000 exemption for advanced degree holders from U.S. universities). After selection, employers must submit complete applications, and USCIS must approve them for individuals to gain H-1B status for the coming fiscal year. PROMOTED In the first round, USCIS selected 110,791 registrations for FY 2024, more than the 85,000 annual numerical limit, to allow for applications that are not approved. On July 31, 2023, USCIS announced a second round of selections totaling 77,600. “We have randomly selected, from the remaining FY 2024 registrations properly submitted, a sufficient number of registrations projected as needed to reach the cap, and have notified all prospective petitioners with selected registrations from this round of selection that they are eligible to file an H-1B cap-subject petition for the beneficiary named in the applicable selected registration,” according to a USCIS statement. “USCIS selected 77,600 registrations in the second selection for the FY 2024 H-1B cap.” MORE FOR YOU Trump Arraignment: Ex-President Claims ‘Persecution’ After Pleading Not Guilty To Four Jan. 6 Charges Lizzo s Lawyer Is A Hollywood Bulldog See Marty Singer s Lengthy List Of Famous Clients Protesters Crowd D C Courthouse Ahead Of Trump s Arraignment Photos What The Second H-1B Selection Round Reveals About The First Round Based on the 77,600 registrations in the second selection, USCIS personnel likely believe 50,000 or fewer H-1B registrations from the first selection will result in approved H-1B petitions, according to an NFAP analysis. “USCIS has been approving H-1B FY 2024 cases, but many still are in process,” according to Lynden Melmed, a partner with Berry Appleman & Leiden (BAL) and a former chief counsel of USCIS. That means USCIS gathered enough information from the first selection round to estimate how many additional H-1B registrations needed to be selected during the second round to reach the 85,000 annual limit. Mark Regets, an economist and NFAP senior fellow, believes USCIS personnel guessed as best they could. “If they assumed the second-round acceptance rate would be exactly the same as in the unreported first-round rate, this becomes a type of solvable word problem,” said Regets. “It implies 49,987 acceptances and a still low 45.1% acceptance rate so that 85,000 registrations ultimately become approved H-1B petitions.” (An acceptance means a registration was selected and the H-1B petition approved.) That would mean approximately 35,000 or fewer H-1B registrations selected in the second round would ultimately become approved H-1B petitions. CxO: C-suite news, analysis, and advice for top decision makers right to your inbox. Email address Sign Up By signing up, you accept and agree to our Terms of Service (including the class action waiver and arbitration provisions), and Privacy Statement. A USCIS spokesperson referred to the statement on the USCIS website for information on the selection process. The 45.1% acceptance rate is derived from examining the total registrations from the first and second rounds. Other factors could lead to an even lower number of approved H-1B petitions from the registrations selected in the second round, leading to a third selection round. Kevin Miner, a partner with Fragomen, thinks there are several factors at work in the agency’s second-round selection process. “First, based on the significant number of applicants with more than one employer registering for them, USCIS is assuming that will remain the case with this next round, and the actual filings will be way less than the number pulled,” he said. “That must have been their experience with the first round, so they assume the same thing will happen with this round. “Second, USCIS always selects more cases than numbers because they factor in a certain percentage of denials or withdrawals. Given what they are saying in their announcement about fraud and enforcement for those who have ‘gamed the system,’ I think they are also projecting that there will be a lot more voided registrations as they continue their analysis of the data. They likely pulled a lot more numbers because they know a fair number of registrations will be voided for being inappropriate duplicates.” A Discouraging Process Missing from the discussion on H-1B registrations is how discouraging the U.S. immigration process has become for companies and high-skilled foreign nationals. “Canada’s new program to entice H-1B visa holders to the country attracted so many applications that the 10,000 limit was reached in less than 48 hours,” according to a recent Forbes article. “The response is likely a warning sign to U.S. policymakers that many highly sought foreign-born scientists and engineers in the United States are dissatisfied with the U.S. immigration system and seeking other options.” Miner believes USCIS should factor in employers and foreign nationals who have made other plans. He relates cases of international students not selected in the H-1B lottery who lament the low selection rate. “At some point, it just becomes too discouraging to keep hoping to get picked in the lottery, and they make other plans,” he said. “We will see more and more talent looking outside the United States,” said Lynden Melmed. “And who could blame them?” For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.