Can Kyrsten Sinema's Border Crusade Save Her Seat?

As the 2024 election season draws near, immigration policy on the southern border has emerged as a make-or-break issue for both parties. For Senator Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona, who recently switched her affiliation from Democrat to independent, it also represents an opportunity—a chance to leave behind a reputation as an obstructionist among some members of her former party and build her image as a bipartisan dealmaker who can get things done in a divided congress. A deal can come none too soon. Last month, in what's become an all-too-familiar occurrence, hundreds of migrants tried to rush across the bridge from Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, to El Paso, Texas, shouting "we want to get through!" On the other side, outnumbered border agents sat behind temporary barriers, ready for confrontation. U.S. Border Patrol Chief Raul Ortiz has acknowledged that morale among his agents is at an "all-time low" as the agency faces historic migration levels as individuals flee increasing gang violence and economic devastation. In a show of determination to find a solution that both parties can live with, Sinema, with Republican Senator John Cornyn of Texas, co-led a bipartisan group of eight senators to the same area in January. Although border tours by prominent politicians are commonplace these days, this trip was different, Sinema tells Newsweek in an exclusive interview, calling it the "largest bipartisan congressional delegation from the Senate [to the border] in decades." Also in the group: Republicans Jerry Moran of Kansas, Thom Tillis of North Carolina and James Lankford of Oklahoma, plus Democrats Mark Kelly of Arizona, Chris Murphy of Connecticut and Chris Coons of Delaware. PER Kyrsten Sinema Border 01 BANNER Arizona Senator Kyrsten Sinema, here at the State of the Union address in February, has walked her own path on Capitol Hill. SARAH SILBIGER/BLOOMBERG/GETTY Sinema described the group as "serious policy makers," and said their trip to the border meeting with local leaders and surveying security and humanitarian concerns firsthand supports her contention that passage of federal legislation addressing immigration and border security can be done, even with a divided Congress. In late March, Sinema joined Cornyn on another trip focused on border issues, this time to Mexico City, where lawmakers met with Mexican President Andrés Manuel López Obrador to discuss efforts being taken against drug trafficking and illegal immigration. GET THE BEST OF NEWSWEEK VIA EMAIL Email address "The gravity with which we approached this I think sends a clear message to folks across the political spectrum that we take this seriously," Sinema tells Newsweek. "We want to solve the problem and get this done." Getting Deals Done Sinema projects confidence about the prospects of a deal despite the expected challenges ahead. Coming off the historic 50-50 divided Senate of the last Congress, she enters this year's negotiations with several key bipartisan wins under her belt. Teaming with former Republican Senator Rob Portman of Ohio, Sinema led the effort to pass the bipartisan $1.2 trillion infrastructure bill that saw historic investments in the nation's roads, bridges, airports, water systems, border ports-of-entry and rural broadband, a key provision for Arizona's rural desert communities. President Joe Biden acknowledged Sinema as the lead co-author, calling her "the most determined woman I know." PER Kyrsten Sinema Border 02 Sinema talks with President Joe Biden in December, during a ceremony marking passage of the Respect for Marriage Act. TING SHEN/BLOOMBERG/GETTY Sinema also served as lead negotiator in other high-profile wins for Biden, including the Respect for Marriage Act providing protections for same-sex and interracial marriages, the Bipartisan Safer Communities gun control legislation and the PACT Act providing health care benefits to veterans exposed to toxic burn pits. She also helped facilitate passage of the CHIPS and Science Act, which created a $280 billion investment in the semiconductor manufacturing industry. Arizona's junior Democratic Senator Mark Kelly, who entered the upper chamber after ousting a Republican incumbent in 2020, has worked closely with Sinema in these bipartisan efforts. He served as a lead negotiator for the CHIPS bill, wrote the water provisions in the infrastructure law and helped shape the PACT and Safer Communities acts. Kelly says Sinema embraces working with Republicans. They often speak about how this approach to legislating mirrors the importance their state puts on independence, as exemplified by the late Republican Senator John McCain. Kelly said this embrace of Arizona values has helped make them both effective representatives of the state. "I don't think Democrats have all the best solutions, and I don't think Republicans do either, but working together we can find solutions that are good for the American people," Kelly tells Newsweek. "One reason why [Senator Sinema and I] work so well together is that we both understand that this place works better when you're looking to compromise." Sinema echoed Kelly's sentiments. "There are people who work hard, and there are people who talk loud," she tells Newsweek. "We can accomplish amazing things when we put down the partisan talking points, listen to each other and deliver real results." What a Border Win Would Mean Migration numbers continue to loom as a major political liability for Democrats and the Biden administration heading into the 2024 election. While monthly encounters between migrants and U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) officials at the southern border have recently dropped—from nearly 252,000 in December 2022 to under 157,000 in January and February 2023—the number of monthly encounters remain at historic highs, and the Biden administration has struggled to deflect criticism over its handling of the issue. With growing frustration from the left over the country's current immigration channels and from the right over America's ability to seal its borders, the Sinema-led framework, which remains under deliberation without a formal introduction date, could ease concerns on both sides. It seeks to provide funding for border enforcement technology, the hiring of new agents and modernizing the asylum system, while also addressing issues within the work visa process and providing Dreamers, immigrants brought to the country illegally as young children, a path to citizenship. PER Kyrsten Sinema Border 03 Migrants last month tried to enter the U.S. forcibly via a bridge in Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, but were held off by border agents. HERIKA MARTINEZ/AFP/GETTY For Biden and the Democrats, a border win would help defuse one of the party's most significant criticisms. For Sinema, who faces continued heat from Democrats for bucking key elements of her former party's agenda, a win on immigration could provide an answer to those on the left who have criticized her bipartisan approach to policy making. And should the senior Arizona senator decide to seek reelection in 2024, such a win would likely prove significant in making the argument that she is the person who not only best represents the state's political values but can also translate those values into legislative victories. A Path to Success In 2013, Congress came close to passing a bipartisan immigration and border enforcement deal after the Senate passed a bill negotiated by a bipartisan group that included current Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer of New York and frequent Republican adversaries Lindsey Graham of South Carolina and Marco Rubio of Florida. The bill, which would have provided undocumented immigrants a pathway to citizenship, added 40,000 new border patrol agents, introduced new ways to earn work visas and repealed the diversity visa lottery, got 14 Republican votes. But it died in the House after then-Speaker John Boehner, a Republican, refused to bring it to a vote. Laurel Harbridge-Yong, a professor specializing in congressional politics at Northwestern University, says the current situation in Congress today may lead to a similar result for Sinema's proposed immigration bill. While Senate lawmakers may be open to compromise, Harbridge-Yong said Republican Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy may not want to bring such an agreement to the floor for fear of igniting open conflict between the hard-right Freedom Caucus and the moderate wing of his party who might favor a deal. "With this kind of multi-dimensional policy making, you can get something new that is a win for each side without being too much of a concession," Harbridge-Yong tells Newsweek."[But] if the Speaker expects a bill to highlight divisions internally within their party, they may not want to put that bill on the floor because the collective cost of showing those divisions and airing their internal fights may not be worth it." Still, she says the bill is not "doomed," and that "there is a chance" it could pass. Demand for a response to the border and immigration situation remains high on both sides of the aisle, and there is a mechanism in place to force a decision on the issue. Democrats, with the support of moderate Republicans, could file a "discharge petition" that forces a vote on the measure at hand. Harbridge-Yong explains that it requires 218 of the 435 members of the House to sign the petition, which requires the bill to eventually be brought to the floor. It's a long shot, though: Harbridge-Yong notes that between 1931 and 2002, some 563 discharge petitions were filed, but only 47 got the required number of signatures, just 26 received a vote and only 19 ultimately passed. A Still Divisive Figure While Sinema and Kelly may share a similar approach to policy making, they diverge widely when it comes to national party politics. Both ran and entered the Senate as Democrats, but Sinema announced in December 2022 that she would be leaving the Democratic Party and switching her registration to independent. While she does not attend Democratic Caucus meetings, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer has maintained her committee assignments with the majority. Her voting record over the last Congress was similar to that of Kelly and other centrist Democrats. Samara Klar, a professor who studies political behavior at the University of Arizona School of Government and Public Policy, says Sinema's approach is consistent with an Arizona electorate that is "pretty moderate overall," and tends to "reward centrists" while penalizing extremists. "For Kyrsten Sinema, the truth is I think that her moderate centrist kind of party-bucking ways may have actually played out fine in Arizona," Klar tells Newsweek. "I think she's got a pretty good case to be made that she's represented the state well and that she's doing what people voted her in to do." However, she noted there is also a downside for Sinema. "But what's really sunk her is that it also means she is like a thorn in Biden's back," Klar said. "She's really been a huge problem for the national Democratic Party, and that has damaged her reputation." READ MORE Democrat Mark Kelly wants a border deal, even if it means backing GOP House Migrants in deadly Texas incident were locked in train car for hours: Mayor Border patrol chief admits Biden official wrong about "operational control" During negotiations around Biden's original $3.5 trillion Build Back Better agenda, Sinema's stock among Democrats soured when both she and centrist Democratic Senator Joe Manchin of West Virginia held up passage due to concerns around inflation and the bill's price tag. Sinema drew further heat when she voted to protect the filibuster when Democrats looked to scrap the measure to facilitate passage of the John Lewis Voting Rights Act. As pressure from progressives mounted to pass Build Back Better and Voting Rights, Sinema's decision to maintain the filibuster proved to be the last straw for many Democrats. Sinema defended her vote against abolishing the filibuster in an op-ed for the Washington Post, arguing that she favors the rule, which requires 60 votes in order for legislation to pass, because it "compels moderation and helps protect the country from wild swings between opposing policy poles." Fast-forward to July 2022, when Manchin ultimately agreed to the Inflation Reduction Act as a replacement to Build Back Better, Sinema once again left her fingerprints on the bill by insisting that it nix an effort to remove the "carried interest loophole," which allows private equity investors to pay lower tax rates on certain income. She also requested an additional $4 billion in aid to address the Colorado River drought crisis, money which benefits Arizona. Both demands were met, and the bill passed. By then, much of the damage to her political standing among the left was done. Progressive groups that had once worked on her campaign were now advocating for her removal. Some Democrats began suggesting she be replaced in the Senate with someone who supports the party agenda. Congressman Ruben Gallego, a member of the Progressive Caucus, has entered the race for the Democratic Party nomination to challenge her in 2024, if she runs. Since Gallego's announcement, reports of Sinema's attitude toward the Democrats have fueled further ire among members of her former party. In March POLITICO reported that the Arizona senator has met regularly with GOP lobbyists and made critical, joking comments about Democratic colleagues in such meetings, including criticizing Democratic Caucus lunches as a place where "old dudes are eating Jell-O, everyone is talking about how great they are." Some, including Klar, speculate that if Sinema had remained a Democrat she would have lost in the 2024 primary due to this erosion of support. By becoming an independent, she no longer has to face a primary—but also risks losing access to millions in campaign funding from the Democratic Party. Sinema claimed during her announcement of the switch that she "never really fit into a box of any political party" and that the affiliation better reflects that sentiment. Will Independence Save Her? Sinema's voting record and switch to independent have lowered her favorability among Democrats from 42 percent to 30 percent, but an opinion poll of Arizona voters in January 2023 found that her approval among independents has risen from 29 percent to 42 percent. Similarly, approval among Republicans improved from 38 percent to 43 percent. Among state voters as a whole, her approval rose from 36 percent to 38 percent. In Arizona, those unaffiliated with either major party encompass about 35 percent of the state electorate. Republicans comprise 35 percent, and Democrats hold 30 percent. Sinema's approval among Republicans is reflected in the opinions of her GOP colleagues on Capitol Hill, including North Carolina's Thom Tillis, a prolific dealmaker and Sinema's partner on the border security bill. "Senator Sinema is just highly reliable, going through several negotiations where she and I were very actively involved," Tillis tells Newsweek. "Number one, she's got a great memory. Number two, when she makes a commitment, she follows through on it. Number three, she's just enjoyable to work with. Democrats need more of them [like Sinema]." PER Kyrsten Sinema Border 05 Republican Rob Portman, who teamed with Sinema on the infrastructure bill. TOM WILLIAMS/CQ-ROLL CALL, INC/GETTY Despite relationships like this and her body of work, Harbridge-Yong said she believes the Arizona senator has yet to build a national reputation as someone with a "unique ability to build coalitions or negotiate." While Sinema has been at the center of a number of deals, Harbridge-Yong said this may be due to her ideological position as a centrist during a polarizing time in America, not because she has a unique ability to bring people together. She said this differs from someone like former Massachusetts Senator Ted Kennedy who, despite being "staunchly liberal," built a reputation as someone able to work with conservatives. However, if Sinema pulls off an immigration deal, Harbridge-Yong said such a feat could reshape the way she is viewed nationally. Getting such a bill through a divided Congress would demonstrate Sinema's ability to cut bipartisan deals in a political atmosphere even thornier than that of the last Congress, showing those in Washington she's able to build coalitions that go beyond relationships of political convenience. Such a feat could also prove significant in showing that bipartisan legislation grounded in centrism can still deliver for the people, even in a time of extreme polarization within a split Congress. And that's a message likely to play well with voters in Sinema's home state. "Arizonans don't actually wake up thinking about Republican breakfast or Democratic ride to work," Sinema told Newsweek. "They just want meaningful solutions to the problems that they face, and they want government to get out of the way, and that's my approach." 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