Battle to Win the House Plays Out in 3 Key Border Districts in South Texas

The Republican Party's strategy and tactics in three pivotal south Texas Congressional races were on full display during a call convened by the Republican National Committee (RNC) this week. The call featured Representative Mayra Flores, who won the special election to face Representative Vicente Gonzalez in the 34th Congressional District; Monica De La Cruz, facing Michelle Vallejo in the 15th; and Cassy Garcia, looking to defeat longtime congressman Henry Cuellar in the 28th. The call began and ended with a focus on "Biden's border crisis," one that De La Cruz modified to "Biden's broken border crisis," adding that there were record apprehensions at the border and constituents in south Texas want the problem brought under control. "I'm deeply troubled by the impact the Biden broken border crisis is having on our people, our resources, and our local economy," De La Cruz said, while Flores called it a "humanitarian crisis." NEWSWEEK NEWSLETTER SIGN-UP > "Allow me to disabuse you of the notion that Hispanics are okay with this," Garcia added. "We're not." ADVERTISING The races will not just be critical in the battle for control of Congress, but should also reveal whether significant Republican investments aimed at Latinos in places like south Texas were effective, or whether, like a pendulum, the momentum has swung back toward Democrats. Ad ChoicesYOUR WARDROBE MVP SPONSORED CONTENT YOUR WARDROBE MVP BY VICTORIA'S SECRET Participants on the call emphasized that Republicans were offering voters three strong Latina women, and also highlighted the RNC investment in south Texas ahead of November. That increased outreach is part of a seven-figure investment in Texas, which had four of the first six community centers the RNC opened nationwide "earlier than ever before" to continue trying to make inroads in the Latino vote. NEWSWEEK SUBSCRIPTION OFFERS > The RNC also said it has more than 30 staffers and 17,000 volunteers on the ground in Texas, and claimed that they had made nearly 4 million voter contacts across the state. Democratic strategist Joaquin Guerra, who got his start in south Texas politics in Hidalgo county 22 years ago, has noticed the new levels of engagement. "Being from south Texas, this level of investment from Republicans, it's never been done before and it's a good thing," he said. "Voters should have a choice, and it has forced Democrats to step up, and we'll see what happens." mayra flores U.S. Rep Mayra Flores (R-TX) and Republican nominee for Arizona governor Kari Lake speak on a panel at the Conservative Political Action Conference CPAC held at the Hilton Anatole on August 05, 2022 in Dallas, Texas. BRANDON BELL//GETTY IMAGES But while Republicans have had Democrats on their heels since the 2020 election in south Texas, that doesn't necessarily mean they will win these three races. Democrats largely expect Gonzalez to be victorious, with the redrawn 34th District going from +4 Biden to a district he would have won by 16 points. While Cuellar has made enemies among progressives nationally, Texas Democrats say they won't bet against the nine-term congressman, and expect him to squeeze out a close win by a couple of points. "Will voters buy into the crazy fever dream narrative of Republicans?" Guerra asked, citing comments Flores and De La Cruz have been criticized for in the past over whether the 2020 election was stolen. "I think they will see the rationale side of things and stick with members of Congress who more closely resemble their values of practicality and honesty." While he and other Democrats see Garcia as a serious candidate, he argued that she isn't landing any punches on Cuellar with "fluffy" criticism of his flights to Washington D.C. every week, which is part of his job. But on the call Garcia hit Cuellar hard, tying the border woes to the fact that Cuellar is under investigation, which led to a raid on his Laredo home. "Cuellar is under very serious investigation, he can say whatever he wants on TV," Garcia said, arguing that he "can't focus on the border when he's worried about an investigation." Then she went further, using the kind of personal attacks that have marked the Flores-Gonzalez race. "He's a national disgrace, no one takes him seriously," Garcia said. "He's been in office since I was in kindergarten." henry cuellar Republican Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina (L), joined by Democratic Congressman Henry Cuellar of Texas, speaks on southern border security and illegal immigration during a news conference at the U.S. Capitol on July 30, 2021 in Washington, DC. Graham and Cuellar urged the Biden administration to name former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson as a border czar. KEVIN DIETSCH/GETTY IMAGES The race Democrats are really worried about, however, is TX-15, where Republicans redrew the map to add more conservative voters and create a district that Trump would have won by 2.8 points in 2020, and which is 74% Latino. Republicans have gone on the attack against Vallejo, saying she's too liberal for her district, citing positions she embraced during the primary but de-emphasized once the general election rolled around, and running negative ads calling her a socialist and puppet for Green New Deal extremists. Abel Prado, the executive director of the progressive organization Cambio Texas, told Newsweek that while Gonzalez and Cuellar have their faults, they answer the phone when he calls, even when he has criticisms of them. Vallejo, he says, has not been similarly accessible or open to criticism, and her team believes they know how to win more than local naysayers. With De La Cruz raising almost $3 million by the end of June while Vallejo took in near $700,000, Prado said he is judging the race by finance reports and who the campaign is hiring, while also arguing that she's spending too much money on TV and not enough on field efforts. For those reasons, he believes De La Cruz will win in November. "I hope it's a wakeup call for them," he said of the Vallejo campaign. "I want them to succeed, but its been frustrating." But Daniel Diaz, the political director of LUPE Votes, which helped recruit Vallejo into the race and is running independent expenditures on her behalf, told Newsweek that while the race is the one of the three where the Democrat is "most at risk," she can win if groups like his can help bring out Latino voters for Democrats at levels they voted at in the past. "We're targeting thousands of our members who are low-propensity voters that usually just turn out for presidential elections," Diaz said of voters in Hidalgo, Cameron, and even Starr counties. Trump over-performed in Mexican-American areas in west Hidalgo county, Diaz said, and his group is looking to turn those margins back to 65% to 70% in favor of Democrats. "Monica wins only if Mexican-American communities stay true to their voting for Trump in 2020," he said, adding that he is concerned that De La Cruz is outspending Vallejo with "super PAC money, dark money, and negative ads that are the talk of the town." 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