Biden and Kelly have the edge in a new Monmouth poll of likely voters in Arizona

 Biden and Kelly have the edge in a new Monmouth poll of likely voters in Arizona

by Glenn Thrush

Joseph R. Biden Jr. holds a four-point edge over President Trump among registered voters in Arizona, though that advantage fades when the sample focuses only on likely voters, according to a Monmouth University poll released Thursday.

When assuming relatively high turnout, the poll found that Mr. Biden had 48 percent support among likely voters while Mr. Trump had 46 percent. Under a low-turnout model, the candidates were evenly split at 47 percent each.

Looking at all registered voters, Mr. Biden was at 48 percent and Mr. Trump was at 44 percent. In all three scenarios, the differences were within the poll’s margin of error.

Mark Kelly, the Democratic Senate nominee, maintains his steady advantage over Senator Martha McSally, the Republican incumbent, according to the poll.

But Mr. Kelly, an astronaut and husband of former Representative Gabrielle Giffords, has had larger leads in other surveys than in the Monmouth poll, which showed him at 50 percent and Ms. McSally at 46 percent among likely voters in a turnout model anticipating a slightly higher participation rate than in 2016. That difference was also within the margin of error.

Arizona, the poll found, is one of the few battlegrounds in which a third-party candidate is likely to play a significant role on the presidential level. The Libertarian candidate Jo Jorgensen gets between 3 and 4 percent of the presidential vote, depending on the turnout model used.

The news for Mr. Biden was a little rosier when the poll examined critical regions in the state.

In Maricopa County, home to Phoenix, Mr. Biden held a 6-point lead among likely voters — a nine-point swing from 2016, when Mr. Trump won the county by 3 percentage points.

Mr. Biden held big leads in the four counties Hillary Clinton won — Apache, Coconino, Pima and Santa Cruz — with his level of support surpassing that of Mrs. Clinton in 2016.

The former vice president’s core strength in Arizona was among Latino voters, who backed him by a roughly two-to-one margin over Mr. Trump. That is nearly identical to Mrs. Clinton’s performance with that group in 2016, according to exit polls.

Veterans and military families were split evenly between the two candidates, according to the Monmouth poll.

Only one Democratic presidential candidate has prevailed in Arizona in the past 70 years: Bill Clinton in 1996.

The poll also found solid support for ballot measures that would impose an income tax surcharge on high earners and that would legalize marijuana for recreational use.

The poll, which polled 420 registered voters, was conducted between Sept. 11 and 15. It has a margin of error of 4.8 percentage points, although that number climbs when looking at specific subgroups.

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