Wall Street Journal
By Laura Meckler and Kristina Peterson
February 6, 2014
House Speaker John Boehner squashed growing expectations that Congress would rewrite immigration laws this year―dealing a setback to the White House, a swath of U.S. businesses and a bloc of fellow Republicans seeking to improve their party's chances with Hispanic voters.
Rank-and-file Republicans have voiced few complaints about the GOP's latest ideas for an immigration overhaul, which include some legal status for most of the 11.5 million people in the U.S. illegally. But many balked at debating an issue that divides Republicans and feared giving the president a legislative victory in an election year. Some suggested pushing the issue to 2015, when Republicans might have control of the Senate and more leverage.
Many in GOP ranks also expressed distrust that President Barack Obama would enforce any law they pass. "There's widespread doubt about whether this administration can be trusted to enforce our laws," Mr. Boehner told reporters. "It's going to be difficult to move any immigration legislation until that changes."
The White House responded that it has aggressively enforced immigration laws.
The move represents an effort by Mr. Boehner to apply the brakes amid heightened expectations after the GOP unveiled its ideas last week at a retreat in Maryland. It still remains possible he could bring legislation to the floor this summer, after many Republican primaries are over, or late in the year, after the elections.
Ali Noorani, who heads a pro-immigration coalition of religious, law-enforcement and business leaders, said he was told by congressional aides to "take a deep breath" and that "the wheels continue to turn."
The pressures at work on Mr. Boehner won't likely dissipate, however. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R., Ky.), who faces a primary challenge, had earlier this week predicted the immigration push would stall this year, saying the different approaches between the House and Senate present "sort of an irresolvable conflict."
The diminished expectations deal a blow to a host of industries that rely on immigrant labor, from high-technology engineers to agricultural workers.
"There will be disappointment if it can't get done this year, because it is a problem for many, many people in agriculture," said Jim Mulhern, president of the National Milk Producers Federation, representing dairy farmers. "The issue has to get resolved despite the political problems."
If Congress fails to act, immigration is likely to be a critical issue in the 2016 elections. In 2012, Republican Mitt Romney won 59% of white votes―the highest on record―but lost because he did so poorly with minorities, including winning just 27% of Hispanic votes. In the wake of that defeat, the party's official leadership concluded the GOP needed to embrace an immigration overhaul.
"If the party doesn't reach out affirmatively to the immigrant communities, we're going to be a shrinking minority," said John Rowe of Chicago, the former chief executive of Exelon Corp. and a GOP fundraiser, on Thursday.
Any impact on the 2014 congressional contests would likely be more modest. With few House districts competitive in the general election, the bigger threat for many Republicans is a primary challenge from someone more conservative. None of the competitive Senate races are in states with the heaviest Hispanic populations.
Mr. Obama, for his part, could face fresh pressure from pro-immigration groups to throttle back record-level deportations. Mr. Obama has said he doesn't have the power to do that.
The move comes just a week after Mr. Boehner ignited optimism House Republicans would act on immigration after months of inaction. A set of principles went over reasonably well at the House GOP retreat last week, and aides said action was possible as soon as this spring. Mr. Obama stoked enthusiasm by calling the differences between the two sides bridgeable.
In explaining the about-face, Mr. Boehner didn't focus on Mr. Obama's enforcement of immigration or border-security laws. Rather, he cited the president's decision to delay parts of the new health-care law, and his vow, highlighted in the State of the Union address, to go around Congress and use executive action to advance other priorities.
Asked about this lack of trust, White House Press Secretary Jay Carney pointed to increased staffing and technology to secure the border. "The president has an exceptional record of improving border security on his watch," he said.
Mr. Carney expressed optimism legislation would eventually pass Congress. "Nothing as important, nothing as comprehensive, ever comes fast or easy in Washington, so this won't be any different," he said.
Mr. Boehner, who has worked behind the scenes to advance legislation, said Thursday that he still believes the overhaul is needed.
His move was welcomed by those in his conference who oppose a bill. "I don't think you can Obama-proof immigration law," said Rep. Steve King (R., Iowa), a vocal immigration critic.
Advocates of an overhaul have been pushing for more than a decade to address the 11.5 million immigrants in the country illegally and bring coherence to what most agree is a dysfunctional immigration system. A similar effort failed under the Bush administration, but groups were hopeful last summer, after the Senate passed a sweeping bipartisan bill.
Then, last week, Mr. Boehner and other GOP House leaders embraced for the first time legal status for those in the country illegally―and didn't preclude citizenship for those who qualify through normal channels. They also supported more enforcement, increased legal visas and outright citizenship for people brought here illegally as children.
Democrats responded with a mix of continued optimism and dismay. "If Speaker Boehner is saying to the business community, the bishops, the evangelicals, the Latinos, the Asians and everyone else to please wait quietly until the Republican Party is ready, that is not realistic," said Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D., Ill.). "If GOP leaders give up on immigration reform today, that means they give up the White House in 2016, and they are not that shortsighted."
GOP candidates for national office have struggled for years to balance the demands of primary voters with the country's fast-growing Hispanic population. In 2012, GOP presidential candidates battled to prove they were sufficiently tough on illegal immigration, a dynamic that prompted Mr. Romney to say the U.S. should make life so difficult for those in the country illegally that they would "self-deport."
Some Republicans argue the GOP can win the White House by pumping up turnout of white voters. Others say they need to do better with Hispanics, a group some Republicans contend would be in their camp were it not for immigration.
"The reality is no Republican will take the White House again if Hispanics voted the way they voted in 2012," said Ari Fleischer, former press secretary to President George W. Bush, who helped write the post-election GOP review. "The electorate is changing. There are not enough older, whiter voters, and Republicans have to realize that."
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