POLITICO
By Manu Raju and Anna Palmer
April 4, 2013
For the past several weeks, conservative critics of a comprehensive immigration bill have remained mostly mum as Senate negotiators privately hammer out a sweeping proposal they want to unveil as soon as next week.
That’s about to change.
Forces on the right vow to replicate the 2007 effort that led to the demise of George W. Bush’s immigration overhaul, arguing the plan would be too costly and that it would help foreigners and illegal immigrants at the expense of U.S. workers, not to mention eventually providing many with federal benefits. The goal is to stoke enough outrage on the right to dissuade wayward Republicans and moderate Democrats from endorsing the measure.
“I think this is a very high-risk operation and a very dangerous game,” Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-Ala.), a leading critic of the effort, told POLITICO Tuesday. “It has the potential to blow sky high and be damaging if they are unable to produce sound policy.”
Groups like the conservative Federation for American Immigration Reform and NumbersUSA are counting on GOP lawmakers to oppose the bill in a big way. So far, many GOP lawmakers have remained mostly quiet, but the groups want them to rally behind lawmakers like Sessions and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz once details of the plan are clear.
FAIR plans to bring 50 conservative talk-show hosts to Washington later this month to pressure lawmakers on an issue they consider “amnesty,” as well as 25 sheriffs who will argue that the border isn’t secure. NumbersUSA is already up with ads going after Sens. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Mark Begich (D-Alaska), and the group expects to target more senators in the coming weeks.
The Heritage Foundation, an influential conservative think tank headed by former Sen. Jim DeMint (R-S.C.), plans to soon release cost estimates, arguing that federal benefits eventually given to millions of additional green card holders and citizens would worsen the country’s already dire fiscal situation. And the Center for Immigration Studies, a major conservative critic of a comprehensive bill, released a study Tuesday predicting that the government would have to incur an average cost of $2,000 for each immigrant who would be brought into the system.
The biggest prize for conservatives would be to witness Florida GOP Sen. Marco Rubio abandon the comprehensive effort under mounting pressure from the right.
But given the markedly different political climate following the beating Republicans took from Latino voters in the 2012 elections, it’s unclear whether these critics will gain the same traction six years later. There is much more political momentum behind an overhaul, even among Republicans.
The bipartisan group of senators known as the Gang of Eight — including Rubio, Graham and John McCain and Jeff Flake of Arizona — could unveil a new bill as soon as next week when the Senate returns from a two-week Easter recess. The group plans to endorse a pathway to citizenship for the 11 million illegal immigrants in the country, new plans for beefed-up border security, along with a deal brokered between the business and labor communities creating visas for low-skilled foreign workers.
The conservative pushback comes at a tricky time for Republicans. GOP leaders and a number of influential Republicans are trying to put a better face on their party’s problem with Latino voters, but they are facing sharp criticism from the same conservative opponents who damaged the 2007 immigration bill and still carry weight in GOP districts, particularly in the House. Whether they have been marginalized as the GOP tries to moderate on the issue remains to be seen.
The conservative activity all comes even before there’s a detailed bill to attack.
“I think that if we have a bill that includes amnesty for people who knowingly broke the law, there will be strong opposition, yes, though I wouldn’t characterize it as coming from the right,” said DeMint, who helped lead the charge against the 2007 bill. “It just cuts against the grain of the American people — from across the spectrum — to flout the rule of law.”
Still, it won’t be easy for critics to kill the measure, as some conservative activists readily acknowledge. Key Republican senators, the Republican National Committee and a number of influential thought leaders on the right believe it’s time for the party to embrace a comprehensive bill.
Proponents believe they’ll be able to assuage concerns about the bill’s cost by arguing that federal revenue would increase dramatically with more taxpayers brought into the system, and they say new fees imposed by the measure would ensure the bill would have a net cost of zero. And if Rubio actively supports the bill and continues to quiet enough conservative critics, it would give cover to a number of skittish Republicans ready to move past the emotional issue.
In a recent interview with POLITICO, Rubio tried to make the case to conservatives that the 11 million illegal immigrants wouldn’t immediately become citizens or be able to access green cards under the plan. Illegal immigrants could apply for green cards after 10 years and apply for citizenship in 13 years, provided a range of conditions are met, according to Senate negotiators.
Rubio argued that the timetable actually could be much longer for undocumented immigrants, a key pitch to conservative critics.
“Just because you’re eligible to apply for a green card doesn’t mean you get it on that day,” Rubio said. “Just because you’re eligible to apply for citizenship, doesn’t mean you get it on that day.”
Rubio spokesman Alex Conant defended the Florida Republican’s position.
“I think Marco Rubio has approached this with very conservative principles,” Conant said Tuesday, urging critics to withhold judgment until a plan is released. “And anything he proposes is something that conservatives will be able to support.”
Rubio, along with McCain, Graham and Flake, will also have a major ally on the right: Big business groups that have been pushing for an immigration overhaul for years.
“My sense is there has been a sea change in the Republican Party, and people feel we need to do something,” said Tamar Jacoby of the business coalition ImmigrationWorks USA.
Once the bill is unveiled, the public sales job will move into full swing before consideration by the Senate Judiciary Committee as soon as this month. Rubio is expected to begin more aggressive outreach to conservative groups and radio talk show hosts, like he did earlier this year when he dropped by The Rush Limbaugh Show.
But there are a number of landmines that the measure’s proponents must navigate. Procedurally, Rubio must decide whether to join the Senate group and unite to defeat controversial amendments or to side with fellow conservatives who want to move the bill further to the right, even if it may upset the fragile bipartisan coalition.
And there are a host of lingering issues that those looking to kill the bill already are seizing upon. Under the plan, illegal immigrants would immediately be in the country lawfully under probationary status, provided they register with the government, pass background checks and pay fines. At the same time, new enforcement measures to combat visa overstays and toughen border security would take effect before illegal immigrants can obtain green cards or apply for citizenship.
Conservative critics are skeptical that border enforcement measures will be sufficient before illegal immigrants begin obtaining green cards. And, they argue, it doesn’t matter since illegal immigrants will essentially be given legal probationary status if the bill becomes law, something that Mark Krikorian of the Center for Immigration Studies calls a “green card light.”
“Once there’s an actual bill and we see what’s in there, it’s going to be a mess,” Krikorian said.
The bill is expected to prohibit illegal immigrants from obtaining federal benefits until after they are out of probationary status and receive green cards. And there’s an ongoing debate within the group of senators over how quickly to allow some 200,000 low-skilled workers who get visas from being able to apply for and receive green cards and access federal benefits, sources say.
The issue is a touchy one. When Sessions proposed an amendment last month, saying illegal immigrants should be denied free health care even if they are legalized under a new immigration law, the four Democrats voted against it, while the four Republicans supported it.
Sessions believes the benefits issue will be a flash point in the fight to come.
“I think a great deal of work has gone into creating a positive image for reform this year, even with conservative leaders,” Sessions said, “but I think people are far more confident they understand the politics better than they actually do.”
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