Impact of Hispanic Vote Likely in 2016 and Beyond

NATIONAL JOURNAL

By Rosa Ramirez

July 11, 2012

http://nationaljournal.com/thenextamerica/politics/impact-of-hispanic-vote-likely-in-2016-and-beyond-20120711?mrefid=site_search

As the 2012 presidential election approaches, no ethnic group is coveted more than Latinos. But the real press for this potential political force will likely take place in the next decade, as the relatively young Latino population ages into the electorate, a noted demographic policy analyst says.

“The discussion of the Latino voter is the discussion of the future of politics, not about this [election] cycle,” Robert Suro, a professor of journalism and public policy at the University of Southern California, told a small assembly Monday in Washington. “Where this cycle can have a big difference,” he said is how it “casts trajectories into the future.”

Understanding the future impact of the growing Latino electorate continues to be of great interest to think tanks, analysts and the political parties, and on Tuesday at the New America Foundation headquarters in Washington, Michele Salcedo, president of the National Association of Hispanic Journalists, moderated an event titled 2012 (Veinte Doce): The Latino Election? Suro was on a lineup that also included Alexandra Starr and Tamar Jacoby, both New America fellows focused on immigration issues, and political journalist Manuel Roig-Franzia, author of The Marco Rubio Effect.

"According to the foundation, an estimated 50,000 Latinos turn 18 years each month. The white population, on the other hand, has remained stagnant in terms of size and population growth," Suro said.

In seven of the nation'’s largest 15 states, people of color already make up the majority, according to a recent data from the U.S. Census.

"Part of the Latino growth," Suro said, "is attributed to a high fertility rate and immigration. But the numbers don'’t necessarily translate into November votes, in part, because this group is relatively young."

"“School children don'’t vote. They only depend on voters,"” Suro said. “"A child takes 18 years to become a voter. There'’s no way around that.”"

About 58 percent of the Latino population in the U.S. is not eligible to vote, either because they are too young to vote or they are non-U.S. citizens.

"“On election day, they have no role to play,"” Suro said, addressing current demographics. "“They have no voice in our civic affairs.”"

That'’s not to downplay the potential impact of the Latino vote during this presidential election. In some battleground states, including Florida, Colorado, Nevada, Latinos made up more than 10 percent of the voters in 2008.

"While in the “big” battleground states, including Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, “there'’s not a (significant) Latino vote to speak of,"” Suro said. "But each is a state where a few hundred votes could make a difference in the outcome."

"A scattered or undermotivated Hispanic electorate in those states “makes it difficult way to run a large-scale political mobilization,"” he explained.

The two-hour event generated insights into other issues relevant to the Hispanic/Latino population. Among key highlights:

• No such thing as a cohesive Hispanic voting bloc: The voting Latino population is diverse in many states, particularly Florida. The established Cuban population, new arrivals from Puerto Rico and New York, as well South Americans ensure an extra level of complexity. Addressing “a whole hodgepodge” presents challenges for political strategists.
  
• Winning by a whisker: In Colorado and Nevada, where a few hundred votes can swing an election, the Hispanic vote is crucial. "“You’'re talking about whether a 4- or 5-percent shift of Latino vote in Colorado will produce a .2 percent or .3 percent difference in the total vote,"” Suro said. “"That might actually make a difference."
  
• Walking on a tight rope: "There'’s an expectation that Latino politicians desire an open immigration policy," Roig-Franzia said, "but that is a bit too clear-cut. Rubio, for example, favored the Arizona “show me your paper” law, opposes in-state tuition for undocumented immigrant students, and co-sponsored E-Verify. At the same time, Rubio has advocated his alternative DREAM Act that would appeal to Latino voters and the GOP'’s base. “He'’s not just on a tight rope; he'’s on a tight rope 100 stories high,"” Roig-Franzia said.
  
• Election backfire: "Making immigration a political wedge issue can potentially make it harder to find a solution," Tamar Jacoby said. "You can'’t pass immigration reform without Republicans and Democrats," she said. "Even when Democrats controlled both houses of Congress, no immigration reform passed. Republicans also are split. “The trick with immigration reform is putting together a package that appeals to enough people from both parties to get across the finish line.”"