New York Times: Polls of voters in Tuesday's presidential primary in Michigan highlight the deep tension underpinning the Republican nominating contest, with Mitt Romney holding steady as the most electable candidate while Rick Santorum waged a serious challenge with a strong conservative base.
A majority of voters in Michigan said Mr. Romney was the candidate most likely to defeat President Obama, while just a quarter chose Mr. Santorum, according to exit poll results. But electability was not as great a factor for Michigan voters as it had been for voters in Nevada and Florida, where Mr. Romney won handily, or in South Carolina, where voters preferred Newt Gingrich.
About a third of Michigan primary voters said electability was the top quality they were looking for in a candidate, and about 2 in 10 were looking for someone with the right experience -- both strong groups for Mr. Romney. But Mr. Santorum countered with solid support from voters looking for someone with a strong moral character (about one-fourth) and those seeking a true conservative (about one in six). Mr. Romney trailed among groups that had posed problems for him in some earlier contests, including very conservative voters and strong Tea Party supporters.
Still, Mr. Romney ran strongly among groups that he has tended to attract, including older voters and higher-income residents. In Michigan, those who are 65 and older made up about a quarter of the electorate, an increase from 16 percent in 2008.
As has been the case in every contest with exit polls so far this year, the top issue was the economy. More than half of the voters in Michigan chose the economy as their most important issue, while about a quarter cited the federal budget deficit. Mr. Romney won nearly half of these voters.
Although far fewer voters placed abortion highest, about one in seven, Mr. Santorum drew about three-fourths of their votes.
Democrats and independents were allowed to participate in Michigan's Republican primary, yielding a somewhat different electorate than in previous contests. About 6 in 10 said they were Republican, the fewest so far except in New Hampshire. About 3 in 10 were independents, while almost 10 percent -- the most in any nominating contest to date -- said they were Democrats.
Some had encouraged Democrats to try to influence the primary outcome, including Mr. Santorum's campaign, which used automated calls to urge Democrats to cast a vote against Mr. Romney. Exit poll results did not show much effect; Democratic turnout differed little from four years ago, when it accounted for 7 percent of the state's Republican primary voters. And it was far lower than the 17 percent in 2000.
But Mr. Santorum did succeed in pulling Democratic votes his way. Most Democratic voters voted for Mr. Santorum, far outpacing Democratic support for any other candidate.
While Republican voters preferred Mr. Romney, independents were closely divided between the top two candidates. About 6 in 10 Michigan voters described themselves as conservative, including about 3 in 10 who said they were very conservative -- up somewhat from 2008. Mr. Santorum won strong conservatives, who did not favor Mr. Romney in several other states, including Florida, Iowa and South Carolina.
About a quarter of Michigan voters said it mattered a great deal that a candidate shared their religious beliefs. They strongly favored Mr. Santorum, although Mr. Romney won considerable support from Catholic women.
In a state with one of the highest union membership rates in the country, almost one-fourth said they or someone in their household belonged to a labor union. These voters leaned toward Mr. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania who tried to appeal to blue-collar workers.
Voters in Michigan were a bit more apt to say they disapproved of the government's bailout to United States automakers a few years ago. Opponents of the aid were closely divided between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney.
Compared with Michigan, the Arizona electorate is more Republican, conservative and supportive of the Tea Party movement. Yet Mr. Santorum did less well among these groups than he did in Michigan. Mr. Romney won in Arizona among men and women and across all age groups, education levels and income groups.
About one in seven voters in Arizona were Mormon, helping to lift Mr. Romney there. More than 9 in 10 Mormon voters supported him.
About one in eight Arizona voters called illegal immigration their top issue, more than in any other contest where exit polls have asked about it. Still, many more cited the economy, making it voters' top issue in Arizona as well.
Arizona voters were divided over what to do with illegal immigrant workers. About a third said they should be deported, and as many said they should be offered a chance at citizenship. Nearly 3 in 10 said they should be allowed to stay as temporary workers.
The polls, conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of the television networks and The Associated Press, include interviews with voters as they were leaving polling places across Michigan and Arizona and telephone interviews with early and absentee voters in each state.
A majority of voters in Michigan said Mr. Romney was the candidate most likely to defeat President Obama, while just a quarter chose Mr. Santorum, according to exit poll results. But electability was not as great a factor for Michigan voters as it had been for voters in Nevada and Florida, where Mr. Romney won handily, or in South Carolina, where voters preferred Newt Gingrich.
About a third of Michigan primary voters said electability was the top quality they were looking for in a candidate, and about 2 in 10 were looking for someone with the right experience -- both strong groups for Mr. Romney. But Mr. Santorum countered with solid support from voters looking for someone with a strong moral character (about one-fourth) and those seeking a true conservative (about one in six). Mr. Romney trailed among groups that had posed problems for him in some earlier contests, including very conservative voters and strong Tea Party supporters.
Still, Mr. Romney ran strongly among groups that he has tended to attract, including older voters and higher-income residents. In Michigan, those who are 65 and older made up about a quarter of the electorate, an increase from 16 percent in 2008.
As has been the case in every contest with exit polls so far this year, the top issue was the economy. More than half of the voters in Michigan chose the economy as their most important issue, while about a quarter cited the federal budget deficit. Mr. Romney won nearly half of these voters.
Although far fewer voters placed abortion highest, about one in seven, Mr. Santorum drew about three-fourths of their votes.
Democrats and independents were allowed to participate in Michigan's Republican primary, yielding a somewhat different electorate than in previous contests. About 6 in 10 said they were Republican, the fewest so far except in New Hampshire. About 3 in 10 were independents, while almost 10 percent -- the most in any nominating contest to date -- said they were Democrats.
Some had encouraged Democrats to try to influence the primary outcome, including Mr. Santorum's campaign, which used automated calls to urge Democrats to cast a vote against Mr. Romney. Exit poll results did not show much effect; Democratic turnout differed little from four years ago, when it accounted for 7 percent of the state's Republican primary voters. And it was far lower than the 17 percent in 2000.
But Mr. Santorum did succeed in pulling Democratic votes his way. Most Democratic voters voted for Mr. Santorum, far outpacing Democratic support for any other candidate.
While Republican voters preferred Mr. Romney, independents were closely divided between the top two candidates. About 6 in 10 Michigan voters described themselves as conservative, including about 3 in 10 who said they were very conservative -- up somewhat from 2008. Mr. Santorum won strong conservatives, who did not favor Mr. Romney in several other states, including Florida, Iowa and South Carolina.
About a quarter of Michigan voters said it mattered a great deal that a candidate shared their religious beliefs. They strongly favored Mr. Santorum, although Mr. Romney won considerable support from Catholic women.
In a state with one of the highest union membership rates in the country, almost one-fourth said they or someone in their household belonged to a labor union. These voters leaned toward Mr. Santorum, a former senator from Pennsylvania who tried to appeal to blue-collar workers.
Voters in Michigan were a bit more apt to say they disapproved of the government's bailout to United States automakers a few years ago. Opponents of the aid were closely divided between Mr. Santorum and Mr. Romney.
Compared with Michigan, the Arizona electorate is more Republican, conservative and supportive of the Tea Party movement. Yet Mr. Santorum did less well among these groups than he did in Michigan. Mr. Romney won in Arizona among men and women and across all age groups, education levels and income groups.
About one in seven voters in Arizona were Mormon, helping to lift Mr. Romney there. More than 9 in 10 Mormon voters supported him.
About one in eight Arizona voters called illegal immigration their top issue, more than in any other contest where exit polls have asked about it. Still, many more cited the economy, making it voters' top issue in Arizona as well.
Arizona voters were divided over what to do with illegal immigrant workers. About a third said they should be deported, and as many said they should be offered a chance at citizenship. Nearly 3 in 10 said they should be allowed to stay as temporary workers.
The polls, conducted by Edison Research for a consortium of the television networks and The Associated Press, include interviews with voters as they were leaving polling places across Michigan and Arizona and telephone interviews with early and absentee voters in each state.
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