Arizona Republic: (Article by Daniel Gonzalez): Heading into the 2012 election season, illegal immigration is no longer the red-hot political issue it was just a few years ago.
This month's recall of Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce shows the subject has peaked, according to some analysts.
Pearce rode voter concern over illegal immigration to national prominence by championing enforcement-only measures to crack down on undocumented immigrants in Arizona. Those measures were emulated by elected officials around the country.
But his steadfast devotion to immigration enforcement was not enough to keep him in power, in part because illegal immigration is down significantly, border security has improved and voters have moved on to more pressing issues, analysts say.
As the 2012 campaigns heat up -- particularly the presidential race -- fixing the economy, job creation and cutting the federal deficit have dominated the discussion by far. And those issues will continue to be the ones that resonate into next year, experts say and recent polling suggests.
That's not to say that illegal immigration and border security won't flare up at times, as they already have. Hoping to appeal to anti-immigration conservative primary voters and "tea party" activists, most of the GOP presidential contenders have jockeyed to characterize themselves as tough on border security and immigration enforcement. Some have courted Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, another nationally known illegal-immigration hard-liner from Arizona, in hopes of securing his endorsement. And Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support of in-state tuition for undocumented students and other policies that his rivals characterized as soft on illegal immigration hurt his campaign with base Republican voters.
But in a general election, when President Barack Obama and his Republican opponent will need to appeal to a broad array of voters, illegal immigration is expected to take a backseat to jobs and the economy, analysts say.
This month's recall of Arizona Senate President Russell Pearce shows the subject has peaked, according to some analysts.
Pearce rode voter concern over illegal immigration to national prominence by championing enforcement-only measures to crack down on undocumented immigrants in Arizona. Those measures were emulated by elected officials around the country.
But his steadfast devotion to immigration enforcement was not enough to keep him in power, in part because illegal immigration is down significantly, border security has improved and voters have moved on to more pressing issues, analysts say.
As the 2012 campaigns heat up -- particularly the presidential race -- fixing the economy, job creation and cutting the federal deficit have dominated the discussion by far. And those issues will continue to be the ones that resonate into next year, experts say and recent polling suggests.
That's not to say that illegal immigration and border security won't flare up at times, as they already have. Hoping to appeal to anti-immigration conservative primary voters and "tea party" activists, most of the GOP presidential contenders have jockeyed to characterize themselves as tough on border security and immigration enforcement. Some have courted Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio, another nationally known illegal-immigration hard-liner from Arizona, in hopes of securing his endorsement. And Texas Gov. Rick Perry's support of in-state tuition for undocumented students and other policies that his rivals characterized as soft on illegal immigration hurt his campaign with base Republican voters.
But in a general election, when President Barack Obama and his Republican opponent will need to appeal to a broad array of voters, illegal immigration is expected to take a backseat to jobs and the economy, analysts say.
Issue's risks
Although illegal immigration has waned as a political issue, it hasn't completely faded, according to some analysts.
Inspired in part by Pearce, local and state lawmakers around the country continue to push immigration-related bills and resolutions at a record pace.
In June, Alabama passed a sweeping immigration-enforcement bill considered tougher than Senate Bill 1070, the law Pearce wrote as part of an effort to drive illegal immigrants out of Arizona by, among other measures, requiring local police to question people they suspect of being in the country illegally about their immigration status.
Advocates of tough immigration enforcement reject the notion that Pearce's recall amounted to a referendum on immigration policy and vow to keep pushing for more crackdowns.
But analysts say Pearce's recall showed that candidates and elected officials who use illegal immigration to win votes and rise to power also risk alienating voters in the long run if they fail to recognize other issues important to voters. They also risk galvanizing the fast-growing Latino population.
"One would have to say that the Russell Pearce election is one indication that the trend has peaked," said Muzaffar Chishti, who tracks immigration legislation for the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Washington, D.C. "There may be other factors in his defeat, but wrapping himself around the illegal-immigration flag did not help his election. That is a big lesson for people that want to make illegal immigration the hallmark of their legislative career."
Local and state lawmakers introduced more than 1,590 immigration-related bills this year, the most ever, Chishti said. Of those, at least 257 passed.
Although illegal immigration has waned as a political issue, it hasn't completely faded, according to some analysts.
Inspired in part by Pearce, local and state lawmakers around the country continue to push immigration-related bills and resolutions at a record pace.
In June, Alabama passed a sweeping immigration-enforcement bill considered tougher than Senate Bill 1070, the law Pearce wrote as part of an effort to drive illegal immigrants out of Arizona by, among other measures, requiring local police to question people they suspect of being in the country illegally about their immigration status.
Advocates of tough immigration enforcement reject the notion that Pearce's recall amounted to a referendum on immigration policy and vow to keep pushing for more crackdowns.
But analysts say Pearce's recall showed that candidates and elected officials who use illegal immigration to win votes and rise to power also risk alienating voters in the long run if they fail to recognize other issues important to voters. They also risk galvanizing the fast-growing Latino population.
"One would have to say that the Russell Pearce election is one indication that the trend has peaked," said Muzaffar Chishti, who tracks immigration legislation for the Migration Policy Institute, a nonpartisan research group in Washington, D.C. "There may be other factors in his defeat, but wrapping himself around the illegal-immigration flag did not help his election. That is a big lesson for people that want to make illegal immigration the hallmark of their legislative career."
Local and state lawmakers introduced more than 1,590 immigration-related bills this year, the most ever, Chishti said. Of those, at least 257 passed.
Eclipsed by economy
Polls show that Americans are most concerned about the economy and jobs.
In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted during the first week of November, 56 percent of Americans named the economy and jobs as the single most important issue in their choice for president. Just 1 percent named immigration or illegal immigration. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
A Gallup poll during the same week found similar results.
Chishti said while Americans still care about illegal immigration, they are more directly affected by the economy and jobs.
"It's like when they look at all other issues that are affecting them, they don't see this as paramount an issue in their lives," Chishti said. "How many people do we know, frankly, who lose a job to an illegal immigrant? On the other hand, we know a lot of people who get a lot of benefits from the labor of unauthorized immigrants. I think that is the reality that is sinking in."
Polls show that Americans are most concerned about the economy and jobs.
In a Washington Post-ABC News poll conducted during the first week of November, 56 percent of Americans named the economy and jobs as the single most important issue in their choice for president. Just 1 percent named immigration or illegal immigration. The poll had a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.
A Gallup poll during the same week found similar results.
Chishti said while Americans still care about illegal immigration, they are more directly affected by the economy and jobs.
"It's like when they look at all other issues that are affecting them, they don't see this as paramount an issue in their lives," Chishti said. "How many people do we know, frankly, who lose a job to an illegal immigrant? On the other hand, we know a lot of people who get a lot of benefits from the labor of unauthorized immigrants. I think that is the reality that is sinking in."
In Arizona, however, illegal immigration remains a top concern along with the economy.
In a similar statewide poll conducted by Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy, 24 percent of Arizonans named illegal immigration and border security as the biggest problem facing the state, slightly ahead of 22 percent who named jobs and the economy.
Bruce Merrill, a political scientist who directed the poll, said he was surprised that illegal immigration ranked so high, considering that illegal immigration has declined in Arizona while the state's economy remains stagnant.
He attributed the results in part to the "scapegoating" of illegal immigrants for the state's economic problems.
"I think illegal immigration will continue to be a major concern in Arizona as long as we have the perception of the economic recession," Merrill said. Although studies have shown that illegal immigrants fill jobs that most Americans don't want to do, it is still certainly a popular perception that in an economic downturn these people are taking jobs away from legal citizens."
Merrill also said the constant media attention devoted to the issue of border security and unauthorized immigration is likely another reason Arizonans named illegal immigration as top concern.
In a similar statewide poll conducted by Arizona State University's Morrison Institute for Public Policy, 24 percent of Arizonans named illegal immigration and border security as the biggest problem facing the state, slightly ahead of 22 percent who named jobs and the economy.
Bruce Merrill, a political scientist who directed the poll, said he was surprised that illegal immigration ranked so high, considering that illegal immigration has declined in Arizona while the state's economy remains stagnant.
He attributed the results in part to the "scapegoating" of illegal immigrants for the state's economic problems.
"I think illegal immigration will continue to be a major concern in Arizona as long as we have the perception of the economic recession," Merrill said. Although studies have shown that illegal immigrants fill jobs that most Americans don't want to do, it is still certainly a popular perception that in an economic downturn these people are taking jobs away from legal citizens."
Merrill also said the constant media attention devoted to the issue of border security and unauthorized immigration is likely another reason Arizonans named illegal immigration as top concern.
State Rep. John Kavanagh, R-Fountain Hills, is a Pearce supporter and one of the state's leading advocates of enforcement laws aimed at driving illegal immigrants out of Arizona. He agrees the issue of illegal immigration has taken a back seat to the economy.
"Yes, because the number of illegals has greatly decreased because of the bad economy and also the bad economy has stepped to the forefront," Kavanagh said. "I think people are still concerned about it, but not like it was two years ago."
As the economy recovers, however, and more illegal immigrants come back for jobs, the issue will surge, Kavanagh said.
"Yes, because the number of illegals has greatly decreased because of the bad economy and also the bad economy has stepped to the forefront," Kavanagh said. "I think people are still concerned about it, but not like it was two years ago."
As the economy recovers, however, and more illegal immigrants come back for jobs, the issue will surge, Kavanagh said.
Political lessons
Immigrant advocates and supporters of tougher enforcement differ sharply over the political lessons learned from Pearce's recall. Advocates say Pearce's defeat shows that pushing enforcement-only policies can backfire while those on the other side of the debate say the public still favors such measures.
Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice, an immigrant advocacy group in Washington, D.C., said pushing hard-line immigration policies works better in Republican primaries. But Pearce's recall showed that in general elections, they anger Latino voters and turn off many moderates.
"I think that was the dynamic in the Pearce race, and I think that will be the dynamic in the presidential race," Sharry said. "It really says that while being a hard-liner may work in very conservative primaries, watch out in general election time when you have an increasingly mobilized Latino population and you have many moderate voters who want solutions to problems."
Immigrant advocates and supporters of tougher enforcement differ sharply over the political lessons learned from Pearce's recall. Advocates say Pearce's defeat shows that pushing enforcement-only policies can backfire while those on the other side of the debate say the public still favors such measures.
Frank Sharry, executive director of America's Voice, an immigrant advocacy group in Washington, D.C., said pushing hard-line immigration policies works better in Republican primaries. But Pearce's recall showed that in general elections, they anger Latino voters and turn off many moderates.
"I think that was the dynamic in the Pearce race, and I think that will be the dynamic in the presidential race," Sharry said. "It really says that while being a hard-liner may work in very conservative primaries, watch out in general election time when you have an increasingly mobilized Latino population and you have many moderate voters who want solutions to problems."
The Pearce recall also showed that voters want lawmakers to focus on other issues, not just illegal immigration.
"The public is going to be a lot more demanding now about, Number 1, what are you going to do about the top issues we are really concerned about with immigration having fallen off the top of the list, and Number 2, when are you going to do something that really solves illegal immigration," Sharry said.
Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, an advocacy group in Washington, D.C., that pushes for more restrictions on immigration, said he does not believe Pearce's defeat was related to his stance on illegal immigration.
Mehlman said Pearce and his Republican opponent, Jerry Lewis, the charter-school executive and political newcomer who won the election, share similar views on immigration, and in Arizona and other states, polls show that the public generally supports enforcement measures such as SB 1070.
Lewis, however, said during his campaign that he would have voted against SB 1070 and favored a broader approach to immigration reform than Pearce, including allowing some illegal immigrants to remain in certain circumstances. He also campaigned to focus on other issues such as the economy and education.
"This seemed to be more of a personal style issue with Pearce than anything else," Mehlman said.
"The public is going to be a lot more demanding now about, Number 1, what are you going to do about the top issues we are really concerned about with immigration having fallen off the top of the list, and Number 2, when are you going to do something that really solves illegal immigration," Sharry said.
Ira Mehlman, a spokesman for the Federation for American Immigration Reform, an advocacy group in Washington, D.C., that pushes for more restrictions on immigration, said he does not believe Pearce's defeat was related to his stance on illegal immigration.
Mehlman said Pearce and his Republican opponent, Jerry Lewis, the charter-school executive and political newcomer who won the election, share similar views on immigration, and in Arizona and other states, polls show that the public generally supports enforcement measures such as SB 1070.
Lewis, however, said during his campaign that he would have voted against SB 1070 and favored a broader approach to immigration reform than Pearce, including allowing some illegal immigrants to remain in certain circumstances. He also campaigned to focus on other issues such as the economy and education.
"This seemed to be more of a personal style issue with Pearce than anything else," Mehlman said.
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