Wall Street Journal (Editorial)
June 04, 2018
The media love to showcase Steve Bannon, perhaps because the former White House aide can be counted on to give bad advice to Republicans. A classic of the genre is CNN host Fareed Zakaria’s endorsement this weekend of Mr. Bannon’s counsel that Republicans need to inflame even further the politics of trade and immigration to keep the House and Senate this year.
If Republicans stay on their current path, “they will lose 40 seats in the House and President Trump will be impeached,” Mr. Bannon said from Rome, where he is advising the Italian right-left coalition. His theory is that flogging immigration and trade will increase Republican turnout.
Perhaps he should stay in Italy. To hold the House the GOP needs to carry most of 30-40 key swing districts, including 23 that Hillary Clinton carried in 2016. Those districts are full of college-educated Republicans and independents who are lukewarm on Mr. Trump personally but like that the GOP’s policies are working. They want a solution on immigration.
That’s why Representatives like Carlos Curbelo of Florida, Will Hurd of Texas and Erik Paulsen of Minnesota want a vote to legalize the so-called Dreamers. Democrats will benefit more if the GOP fails to trade Dreamer legalization for more border security. Driving more turnout to Mark Meadows in a safe North Carolina seat won’t save David Valadao in California’s Central Valley.
Ditto for trade, where retaliatory tariffs from Canada, Mexico and Europe are targeting swing GOP districts. There’s orange juice from Florida, yogurt and dairy from Wisconsin and bar chocolate like Hershey’s in Pennsylvania.
The Trump tariffs might save Senator Heidi Heitkamp, who is defending North Dakota farm exporters. House Democrat Collin Peterson has also spoken out against them, and his rural Minnesota district includes pork producers, another target for retaliation. Missouri is especially exposed to steel and aluminum tariffs, and Democratic Senator Claire McCaskill says she’s “standing up for Missouri small businesses” harmed by tariffs, as she put it in a recent press dispatch.
The GOP has recently narrowed the spread in the generic ballot to a 3.2-point edge for the Democrats in the latest Real Clear Politics average, down from double digits. The rebound follows the party’s success on tax reform and other campaign promises, and the improving economy has helped to lift Mr. Trump’s approval rating. Incumbents now have accomplishments to run on rather than have to talk about special counsel Robert Mueller or President Trump’s Twitter outbursts.
None of this good news would have happened if the GOP had taken Mr. Bannon’s advice for a 44% top marginal tax rate and negligible cut in the corporate tax rate. The Bannon agenda on immigration and trade would hurt the growth that is lifting Republicans.
The GOP should press ahead on its work requirements for food stamps as part of the farm bill, which is a fight Republicans can win with the public if Democrats block reform. They can also run on making tax cuts permanent and opposing impeachment, among other things. But they’ll have a better chance of keeping the House if they pass a compromise on immigration, and if President Trump declares a cease fire in his trade wars.
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