Politico Magazine (Opinion)
By Jon Ralston
August 12, 2015
As
presidential candidates begin to genuflect before the people of Iowa
and New Hampshire, once again beginning an anachronistic quadrennial
ritual, someone has to say
it: This must end. We can keep pretending how quaint it is to see
possible leaders of the free world chat up the riveting folks in a
Manchester diner or pretend to enjoy the “Roast and Ride” in Boone. But
neither state represents the real America anymore,
nor do they represent even a realistic crucible in which to choose a
nominee.
Even
Tevye would blanch at this tradition that has long since served its
purpose. It’s time for a new tradition that would make presidential
candidates confront the changing
nature of America and help ensure that the candidates focus on the real
issues facing the nation, not just ethanol subsidies, the butter cow
and the Merrimack Fourth of July parade.
In
short, it’s time to make Nevada the premier first in the nation
contest. And I’m not just arguing that because I’ve covered politics in
the Silver State for 30 years.
Nevada already matters quite a bit as the third contest in line, and
the candidates are flocking here already. Jeb Bush is here this week, a
half-dozen of the GOP contenders will attend a forum this weekend not
far from the state capital and Hillary Clinton
will be in Las Vegas next week. The transition would be almost
seamless: Moving the nation’s first contest to Nevada would make the
politicians sharper, the media happier and America stronger. Here’s why:
1) Demographics:
You would need to enlist the Concord and Des Moines search and rescue
units to find minorities in Iowa or New Hampshire. Diverse they are not.
Iowa is 92.5 percent white and New Hampshire is even whiter at 94.2
percent, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. By contrast, Nevada has a
27.5 percent Latino population, so candidates of both parties would
immediately be forced to talk about illegal immigration
in ways that they simply can’t or won’t now—that is, fewer evasions.
That would better prepare them for the general, right?
2) We are America:
Yes, Iowa and New Hampshire have rural communities that are microcosms.
But they are microcosms of only part of this country. There is no major
city in either state like Las Vegas, which is a swirling mélange of
urban life. It’s not New York or Los Angeles, but Vegas is sui generis and
would challenge any candidate to navigate. Nevada also has a
medium-sized, protean city in Reno and a massive
swath of rural country in between the two urban areas. Trying to court
voters in Las Vegas and Reno and Tonopah and Elko and Fallon: That’s
America.
3) The fun quotient:
I am sure that it’s quite enjoyable for folks in Iowa and New Hampshire
to go to the drive-in on Saturday nights or go for milk shakes at the
local malt shop. But, engaging in frivolity in those two states would
be like being in a coma in Nevada. Fun matters, for the candidates and,
of course, the media. Penn & Teller, Cirque du Soleil, Celine,
Elton. Need I go on? Not to mention that in Lake Tahoe
Nevada has one of the more spectacular lakes in the world—yes, the
world. Once again, our diversity is our strength.
4) We don’t gamble: Nevada’s history of picking presidential winners is unmatched. As the great Eric Ostermeier has pointed
out, Nevada has voted for the victor in every cycle but one
(1976—sorry, President Ford) in the last 100 years. New Hampshire and
Iowa do not compare. And just look at the nominating process: Nevada
showed strength for Barack Obama in 2008, handing him
a caucus victory—he lost the popular vote here to Hillary Clinton but
won the delegate fight—and Mitt Romney easily won here in 2012. As for
Iowa, I don’t recall the presidential administrations of Mike Huckabee
or Rick Santorum. And while we all remember
the dramatic Hillary victory in New Hampshire in ’08, she would soon
fall to Obama. Nevada picks winners.
5) Everyone else gambles:
It used to be all the effete Eastern elites thought of Nevada as a
mockable curiosity, a place where people go for escape vacations, where
the denizens live in hotels, where Sin City was an aberration and no
one even heard of Reno except for bowlers. No longer. Today, gambling is
in almost every state, and Nevada is no outlier. And thanks to
high-profile economic development scores—hello, Tesla—we
are not a one-trick pony anymore. And we still have the most
spectacular casinos in the world, some of the best restaurants and
nonpareil shopping—at least compared to Iowa and New Hampshire. We are
almost…normal.
6) It’s the economy, stupid:
Iowa (3.7 percent) and New Hampshire (3.8 percent) have jobless rates
under the 5.3 percent in the U.S. Nevada remains at 6.9 percent—only
DC and West Virginia are higher, according to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics. The rate of underemployed is at 15.2 percent, the highest in
the country, indicating while Nevada is recovering from the recession,
the state is still hurting. So wouldn’t it be
more relevant for candidates to come to a state that was socked by the
foreclosure crisis and is struggling to diversify its economy? They
would have to talk about prescriptions and policies in much more dynamic
and specific ways, right? Of course it would.
7) Harry and Sheldon are here (and Brian, too):
Nevada has two of the most important figures in national politics:
Senate Minority Leader Harry Reid and Gondolier
Numero Uno Sheldon Adelson. One is a historically polarizing figure who
will be pummeled in ads; the other is a billionaire who could change
the trajectory of the election. Why not make it easier for GOP
candidates to suck up to Adelson, so he doesn’t just
have to conduct those occasional cattle calls? As for Iowa and New
Hampshire, most Americans couldn’t name any political figure from either
one, much less a compelling one. Sure, Chuck Grassley has an
accidentally entertaining Twitter feed, and Kelly Ayotte
used to travel around the country with John McCain and Lindsay Graham
so someone would be serious. Compare that to Adelson and Reid. That’s
right; you can’t. Don’t forget: Nevada also has an up and coming
national star in Brian Sandoval, a Latino governor
who would be showcased if the state were first. He could be a vice
presidential choice and almost certainly will be offered a post in the
next president’s Cabinet.
8) The DNC and RNC could embrace it:
Yes, it’s late to change the schedule. But both party committees could
see the utility in making sure candidates get known
in Nevada. We are among a handful of states that will determine the
election. Yes, Iowa and New Hampshire are pseudo-swing states. But
Nevada, which once voted almost exclusively for Republican candidates,
now has voted for Obama twice. And the registration
numbers are close—the Democrats have under a 5 percent edge—and
nonpartisan registration has been rising—it’s about a fifth of the
electorate now. What do you say, Reince and Debbie?
9) The facilities are better:
I’m sure those bed and breakfasts in Iowa and New Hampshire are lovely.
But candidates who come to Nevada can stay in opulent palaces
that actually are reasonably priced. And if they need to speak to large
crowds, we have plenty of venues that the other states can’t match—and
the hotel rooms to actually host them. The embedded reporters would like
it a lot better, too. Oh, they can say they
love the traditions and quaint stops of Iowa and New Hampshire and the
overnights at Red Roof Inns and Motel 6s, but who wouldn’t prefer a
night at The Venetian or The Wynn instead?
10) The media:
I love James Pindell and Jennifer Jacobs, who (as do others) do a
first-rate job of covering politics in New Hampshire and Iowa,
respectively. But
the Nevada media is as quirky as it gets, from North to South and
across the rural counties. We have veteran reporters in both urban media
markets and rural newspapers who cover the different aspects of a state
that actually is three distinct states in one—Clark
County (Las Vegas), Washoe (Reno) and the 15 other smaller counties.
And you don’t have to run ads in a different state (Fact: Boston is not
in New Hampshire) to get your message out. We also are a cheap date for
the candidates—media costs are much less expensive
here than almost anywhere. Finally, where else could you find a nightly
television program where a presidential candidate can accuse the host
of being a “proxy for John McCain” (2008) or call him by the wrong first
name (2015)? We matter.
Changing
the inanely long-held primacy of Iowa and New Hampshire will not be
easy. Iowans relish their spot on the calendar, and New Hampshire
Secretary of State Bill
Gardner is an authoritarian figure who terrifies everyone and seems to
believe he can veto any changes. But Sheldon Adelson and Harry Reid
actually have a friendly relationship and if they worked together on
this, they could be unstoppable—and the country
and our politics would be better for it. They should ensure Nevada goes
first.
As a presidential candidate might say, it’s a question of change versus more of the same. America should demand change.
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