National Journal
By Ronald Brownstein
August 13, 2015
Sen.
Marco Rubio of Florida was crisp, compelling, and dynamic at the first
Republican presidential debate last week. In an extensive follow-up
interview on Meet the Press
this Sunday, he was thoughtful and energetic. Each occasion highlighted
the potential of Rubio, a 44-year-old Cuban-American, to offer a fresh,
forward-leaning image in 2016 to a Republican Party now inordinately
reliant on the votes of older whites.
"For our party," Rubio insisted on Meet the Press, "it's incredibly important that we be seen as a movement about the future."
And
yet, in those same forums, Rubio underscored his renunciation of the
comprehensive immigration-reform legislation he helped steer through the
Senate in 2013, and embraced
a position on abortion more conservative than any Republican
presidential nominee since Ronald Reagan.
In
that way, Rubio crystallized the most complex electoral challenge
facing Republicans in 2016: navigating the towering waves of demographic
and cultural change transforming
American life.
With
opinion divided over President Obama's impact on both the nation's
economy and its security, the Democrats' most potent weapon in the 2016
election remains the sense
that they are more connected than the GOP to the nation's evolving
cultural and demographic dynamics. As last week's GOP first- and
second-tier debates demonstrated, the party's presidential field is
struggling to steer between a country that is rapidly reconfiguring
itself, and a conservative base resistant to many of those changes.
Polling
by the nonpartisan Public Religion Research Institute underscores the
depth of disaffection among many Republicans toward the demographic and
cultural forces recasting
America. While 63 percent of Democrats said in a recent institute poll
that "the growing number of newcomers from other countries" strengthens
American society, just 36 percent of Republicans agreed. On a broader
institute question last year, 62 percent of
Republicans said that since the 1950s the "American culture and way of
life" has changed mostly for the worse. Virtually the same share of
Democrats (59 percent) said society since then has changed mostly for
the better.
"Whether
gender roles, the decline of religion, immigration,
multiculturalism—there is this visceral discomfort among Republicans and
conservatives that America is changing
in ways that 'I don't like,'" said Daniel Cox, the religion institute's
research director.
In
this campaign, Donald Trump's fulminations against undocumented
immigrants have most viscerally concentrated that broader anxiety. But,
like steam venting through cracks
in the Earth, that unease resurfaced in other ways during last week's
GOP debates. Viewers heard multiple candidates heatedly denounce the
Supreme Court decision legalizing gay marriage, promise a hard line
against any legal status for undocumented immigrants,
propose to limit legal immigration, pledge to defund Planned
Parenthood, and underscore their opposition to legalized abortion.
The
most dramatic moment in the debate that did not involve Trump came when
Rubio forcefully rejected the suggestion from questioner Megyn Kelly
that he would not ban
abortion in cases of rape or incest. Rubio then reiterated his
opposition to exempting rape and incest from any abortion ban in a round
of post-debate interviews. In his Meet the Press interview, the senator
would not even unequivocally commit to supporting
legal abortion in a pregnancy that endangered the life of the mother.
With
his assured debate performance, Rubio showed why many Republicans
believe he offers the most compelling contrast to Hillary Clinton, the
likely Democratic nominee.
Yet the position he clarified on abortion could prove a heavy load in a
general election. Polls show three-fourths of Americans (and even 71
percent of Republicans) oppose banning abortion in cases of rape. From
George H.W. Bush in 1988 through Mitt Romney
in 2012, every Republican presidential nominee has proposed to ban
abortion, but also supported exceptions for rape, incest, and saving the
life of the mother. The last GOP candidate to advance a position as
hard-line as Rubio's was Ronald Reagan in 1980 and
1984.
That's an appropriate bookend for Rubio's declaration.
The
GOP's underlying political debate this year is whether the party must
try to broaden its reach to younger voters and voters of color with new
policies, or if it can
still win without recalibrating its agenda by mobilizing a Reagan-like
coalition that relies almost entirely on culturally conservative whites.
At the debate, both Ohio Gov. John Kasich (on gay marriage) and former
Florida Gov. Jeb Bush (on immigration) made
the case for new thinking by striking a markedly more inclusive tone
than their rivals.
Wisconsin
Gov. Scott Walker and the blustery Trump each embody the latter
proposition. Rubio has bounced between the alternatives: He has offered
some new thinking (notably
on college affordability) but on many issues has reverted to familiar
conservative orthodoxy, especially after the Right erupted against his
immigration-reform legislation.
Republicans
can't simply ignore the cultural unease felt by many evangelical
Christians and other conservatives central to their electoral coalition.
But they are still
seeking a formula to reconcile those anxieties with the realities of a
swiftly changing society. Rubio, arguably their most forward-looking
candidate, inadvertently demonstrated that dilemma by reviving an
uncompromising position on abortion, one the party
last tried to sell in a presidential election more than three decades
ago to a country very different than it is today.
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