National Journal
By Alex Roarty
July 6, 2015
Joe
Heck might be the Republican Party's star Senate recruit: a House
member, a physician, and a brigadier general in the Army Reserve who
could deal Harry Reid one last
blow by flipping the retiring Democrat's seat to the GOP in 2016.
First, though, Heck will have to overcome a sizable hurdle for any Republican. He has to win over Hispanic voters.
On
Monday, Heck ended weeks of speculation about his future when he
announced he would run for the Senate in Nevada, saying in a video
unveiling his bid that he sees "a
Nevada of unlimited opportunity, a place of better jobs, higher wages,
and the chance to rise as far as the path will take us."
Heck's
candidacy instantly makes Nevada one of next year's most important
Senate battlegrounds—potentially, the race that might determine who
controls the Senate when
the next president takes office.
And
more than any campaign except the race for the White House, Heck and
Nevada will also test Republicans' ability to win Hispanic-heavy states
when turnout skyrockets
during a presidential election year.
According
to projections by David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report, Nevada
will have the highest share of Latino voters of any 2016 battleground
state: more than
one-fifth of the electorate. Meanwhile, the GOP has long struggled with
Latinos, never more so that in the last presidential election. And
since then, the party at large has basically ignored its own leaders'
recommendations to court Hispanic voters more persistently,
including by giving many immigrants who came to the country illegally
the chance to become citizens.
But
Heck has shown uncommon popularity with Latinos in winning three Las
Vegas-area congressional elections, thanks in part to his moderate tone
toward immigration reform.
On the bigger stage of a marquee Senate race, Heck will have to fend
off questions about his own voting record that Democrats are already
promising to ask. The bigger challenge, however, might be separating
himself from a national party that has shown a consistent
penchant for alienating the voters he needs—especially as its
presidential primary begins to heat up.
"Could
there be another Donald Trump rage against Latinos?" asked Chris Roman,
the president and CEO of the Spanish-language MundoFOX station in Las
Vegas. "Will there
be a 47-percent-won't-vote-for me moment? Anything Republican
candidates say or do could somehow cloud his efforts."
Republicans
have a strong recent track record in Nevada, having easily won
back-to-back gubernatorial elections while their down-ballot candidates
swept to victories last
year. In 2012, Republican Sen. Dean Heller defeated Rep. Shelley
Berkley.
But
Hispanic voters don't influence midterm elections the way they do
presidential-year races. Even in Heller's 2012 victory, he carried less
than 46 percent of the vote,
running barely ahead of Mitt Romney as an ethics investigation bogged
Berkley down. Heck faces a stronger opponent and the weight of history.
Catherine Cortez Masto, Nevada's former attorney general and the
presumptive Democratic nominee, is trying to become
the country's first Latina senator.
Democrats
don't expect Reid's handpicked successor to campaign explicitly on her
ethnic heritage. They also know she doesn't have to for it to be a major
part of the campaign.
"When
it comes to the Latino base, it is extremely excited to know that
history could be in the works," said Nelson Araujo, a Democratic
assemblyman from Las Vegas. "That
we could elect the first Latina to the Senate."
To
overcome that, Heck will have to scale up the strategy that's kept his
House seat safe. Heck fended off challenges in 2012 and 2014, supporters
say, because of dogged
outreach to the Hispanic community. He has met frequently with
immigration-advocacy groups and Spanish-language media long before the
2012 election alerted Republicans to the necessity of such outreach. (In
fact, Heck's was one of the voices urging the party
to do more after Romney's loss.)
Aides
to Heck's campaign estimate, that outreach helped him win roughly 40
percent of the Hispanic vote in 2014, a figure that far outpaces that of
most Republican candidates
and is what GOP strategists say is close to a realistic goal for his
Senate campaign.
Roman
recalls meeting Heck for the first time, in 2006, when the Republican
was a state senator and Roman ran a Univision TV station in Las Vegas.
Heck showed up alone,
ready to talk policy and politics.
"He
was the first Republican with whom I had a long conversation," Roman
said. "I was surprised that the depth of knowledge that he had about
Latinos, not just in Nevada,
but throughout the U.S. The guy had done his homework, and you could
tell he wasn't cramming."
Democrats
think Heck's House victories are mostly the product of strong
Republican years and poor opponents. But privately, they acknowledge
that Heck's outreach and relative
popularity within the Hispanic community is real—and concerning.
"It's
kind of like this bring-it-on attitude at this point," said one
Democratic strategist, who requested anonymity to speak candidly about
the race. "I think he is very
secure in his profile and what people can attack him on, and I think
it's going to make him tough to beat. He's very confident."
Democrats
believe they can lean on some pressure points in Heck's voting record
to undo that appeal to Hispanic voters. In those instances, he looks
like a politician
caught between the competing priorities of his own party, eager to
appeal to an expanding electorate but also wary of angering conservative
supporters who have sharply opposed any effort to change the country's
policy toward undocumented immigrants.
Heck
backs a pathway to citizenship, for example, but he also wants to pass
legislation that increases border security first. Many
immigration-reform advocates want to
enact those policies in tandem, and Heck opposed the 2013 Senate bill
that would have done just that. While Heck doesn't currently support
repealing President Obama's executive order to halt deportations of
undocumented immigrants' children, he did vote to
defund the program before it had been implemented. And although Heck
tried to introduce his own version of the Dream Act—which would make
such children eligible for U.S. citizenship if they earned a college
degree or served in the military—he has also endorsed
a debate over revoking birthright citizenship of "anchor babies."
"The
way you look at what Joe Heck has done on immigration is, he's done
enough to say he's talked about the issue, but he's never put his money
where his mouth is," said
Yvonne Cancela, the political director for the Culinary Workers Union
in Las Vegas, a powerful driver of Hispanic voter turnout in Nevada.
While
Democrats think Heck's record provides more than enough ammunition to
scare away Hispanic voters, the Republican's aides argue that, in
totality, he's been more
aligned with the Hispanic community's priorities on immigration reform
than most Republicans. How those voters see things next November may
decide which party controls the Senate afterward.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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