New York Times
By Patrick Healy and Nicholas Confessore
April 27, 2015
It
is a gamble at once audacious and born of necessity: Gov. Scott Walker
of Wisconsin, a likely Republican candidate for president, has put
campaign plans in motion that
cede early momentum to his chief rival, Jeb Bush, in favor of beating
Mr. Bush and other opponents with a long-game strategy designed to
achieve financial and political success next winter.
The
strategy, described in interviews with advisers and donors to Mr.
Walker, is an acknowledgment that despite leading in some early polls
and earning praise from party
kingmakers, Mr. Walker faces serious obstacles — money, readiness,
stature — to becoming his party’s standard-bearer.
Advisers
said Mr. Walker, conceding that he has no hope of raising more than Mr.
Bush this spring and summer, is devoting considerable time instead to
addressing a weakness
that could derail him with a single gaffe no matter how much some
donors love him: his lack of depth on issues facing a president,
especially national security. He is attending near daily policy
briefings and working on Wisconsin’s next state budget, while
his team is quietly recruiting volunteer fund-raisers, known as
bundlers. They now number about 50 in 30 states — a shadow corps ready
to compete with Mr. Bush as soon as Mr. Walker officially announces his
candidacy, which is likely to be in June.
At
the same time, Mr. Walker — who enthusiastically enjoys fund-raising,
his advisers say — is personally courting megadonors like Todd Ricketts,
who will back Mr. Walker
if he runs, and David H. and Charles G. Koch, the conservative
billionaires, according to the advisers and donors, who spoke on the
condition of anonymity to maintain their access to confidential campaign
planning. Several top-tier Republican donors joined
Mr. Walker for a dinner last week at the Ricketts apartment in the Time
Warner Center in Manhattan, including David Koch; Mr. Ricketts and his
father, Joe; the investor Roger Hertog; and the supermarket magnate John
Catsimatidis.
In
emphasizing their long-range strategy, Mr. Walker’s advisers are
seeking to lower expectations ahead of the first fund-raising totals for
most candidates and their
“super PACs,” which will be made public in mid-July. They also want to
minimize expectations at this stage for Mr. Walker as a head-to-head
competitor against Mr. Bush, who talks about policy with greater ease
and confidence.
Advisers
to Mr. Walker do not see any choice: Mr. Bush is raising money
prodigiously, telling donors at a private gathering in Miami last
weekend that his political organization
was set to break political fund-raising records. Mr. Walker believes
his best shot is to peak as a well-prepared, solidly financed candidate
as Iowa, New Hampshire and other states start voting in February and
March.
“It’s
clear Bush has the most bundlers today,” said Jonathan Burkan, a New
York financial adviser and fund-raiser for Mr. Walker. “But it’s only
April. And Walker has
enough of them to do what he needs to do to win the nomination.”
Mr.
Walker’s planning reflects how thoroughly the rise of super PACs has
changed presidential politics. Instead of formally joining the field and
building a large network
of medium-size donors, Mr. Walker and other likely candidates are using
the early months to court small circles of wealthy patrons who can
write six- and seven-figure checks to outside groups supporting their
future campaigns.
The
Walker team’s top goal is to have enough funds to survive early rounds
of anticipated attack ads from the pro-Bush super PAC. Mr. Bush’s
political organization is
expected to raise as much as $100 million during the first half of
2015, while Mr. Walker’s allies believe they can bring in at least $25
million by the end of June.
Of
that total, the Walker team has already raised $5 million for a
political committee, Our American Revival, that houses senior
campaign-staff-in-waiting, advisers say.
Many of the donors Mr. Walker is courting backed him in his 2012 recall
battle and 2014 re-election campaign, races in which he became a hero
to conservatives for his successful fights against labor unions.
The
governor’s bet is that Mr. Bush, who has spent most of this year
courting donors, will fail to connect with grass-roots conservatives,
and that Mr. Walker’s executive
experience in Wisconsin will contrast favorably against the three
senators in the race: Ted Cruz of Texas, Rand Paul of Kentucky and Marco
Rubio of Florida.
These
are big assumptions and risks, but Mr. Walker is confident enough that
he has taken to telling people that he is not only the first choice of
his own supporters,
but the second choice of most other candidates’ supporters.
“It’s
a great thing when you have a big field that eventually will not be as
big,” said Chart Westcott, a Dallas businessman and Walker supporter.
“There’s a lot of love
in Texas for different candidates, but Governor Walker has a unique
ability to unite the party — evangelicals and libertarians, the
establishment and the Tea Party. That’s the appeal he’s used to make
inroads in Texas.”
The
governor’s allies expect the new pro-Walker super PAC, Unintimidated,
to raise between $50 million and $75 million by the end of the 2016
nominating contest.
Mr.
Walker’s strategy is, on one level, an attempt to try to avoid the fate
of Republicans like Tim Pawlenty — another well-regarded Midwestern
governor of a purple state
— who withdrew less than five months after joining the 2012 race, short
of cash and unable to break through to voters in Iowa.
The key question is how many of the biggest conservative donors will offer Mr. Walker help in the next few months.
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