New York Times
By John Harwood
May 14, 2014
WASHINGTON
— Shortly before the 2002 midterm elections, Richard A. Gephardt, who
was then the House minority leader, infuriated his fellow Democrats when
he announced
he would help President George W. Bush win authorization for the Iraq
war.
“It’s
really the most difficult thing you have to ever do — take on a large
part of your caucus on something they feel strongly about,” Mr.
Gephardt, who represented Missouri,
recalled in a recent interview. It is precisely what Speaker John A.
Boehner would have to do with his fellow Republicans to move immigration
legislation toward a landmark compromise with the Democratic-led Senate
and President Obama. And in the unlikely event
he tries, Mr. Boehner would face an even more difficult task than Mr.
Gephardt.
But
treacherous as it would be, the prospect offers Mr. Boehner tantalizing
benefits. It could return him and the House to the legislative
problem-solving he has long
valued but has rarely been able to accomplish as speaker.
It
could engrave on his record the adaptation of American law to
historical, cultural, demographic and economic changes. It could help
his party stem its alienation from
the swelling Hispanic electorate and revitalize its ability to win
presidential elections. Still, the reasons not to try have hardened into
a familiar Washington political consensus.
One
view is that trying to move an immigration compromise could cost him
his job, perhaps immediately. The House has 233 Republicans, 12 of whom
declined to support Mr.
Boehner, who represents Ohio, for speaker in January 2013. A few more
defections could take away his majority and his gavel.
Another
view is that even if Mr. Boehner no longer fears such a rebellion —
because, say, he may have decided to retire — his colleagues in the
Republican leadership do.
Going along with an immigration deal could block their ability to rise.
An
additional line of reasoning is that it is unclear if Democrats would
agree to any compromise acceptable to a substantial portion of the Tea
Party-infused Republican
caucus. Representative Eric Cantor of Virginia, the No. 2 Republican in
the House who hopes to succeed Mr. Boehner as speaker, has warned
against dividing the party before such a promising midterm election for
the Republicans. So for now, Mr. Boehner’s charges
have focused their energies on invigorating the Republican base with
attacks over the Affordable Care Act; the 2012 episode in Benghazi
Libya, that killed four Americans; and the I.R.S. over its scrutiny of
conservative groups.
Yet Mr. Boehner has not abandoned the idea of a deal because a narrow path for achieving one still exists.
A
potential agreement between House Democrats and Republicans starts with
the fact that the Senate, with votes from Democrats and one-third of
Republicans, has already
passed a comprehensive bill. Although Democrats taunt the speaker by
challenging him to put the Senate bill on the House floor, no one in
Congress actually expects him to, given the views of his caucus.
Unless, that is, he has something to offer. And he does.
“He’s
got to have something that has a chance to appeal to a majority of his
caucus,” Mr. Gephardt explained. (When he backed Mr. Bush on Iraq, 80
fellow Democrats joined
him, while 126 opposed him.)
Following
a slower, step-by-step immigration approach that Mr. Boehner has
advocated, the House Judiciary Committee has cleared several bills on
separate aspects of the
issue. This summer, after the threat of primary challenges from the
right passes for many incumbents, Mr. Boehner has the chance to put one
or more of these bills on the floor before lawmakers begin their August
recess.
Passage
of the bills could then set off months of negotiations for a compromise
with the Senate — the very talks that conservatives warn would end with
an amnesty deal
for the 11 million immigrants here illegally. But Mr. Boehner’s power
to appoint House negotiators allows him to shape a more
Republican-friendly outcome.
At this point, Mr. Boehner’s task would become more arduous than any he has been willing to shoulder as speaker so far.
First
he would have to secure the acquiescence, if not support, of his
leadership team in rounding up Republican floor votes. Active opposition
from Mr. Cantor, for example,
could sink the effort.
Then
Mr. Boehner would have to begin intense member-to-member talks to
convince colleagues that supporting a deal is the right thing to do. Mr.
Gephardt never had to do
that on the Iraq vote, which he cast as a life-or-death “conscience
vote” for Democrats to decide on their own.
If
the potential effort by Mr. Boehner should take place during a
postelection, lame-duck session, a White House official estimated that
Mr. Boehner would start with perhaps
60 House Republicans willing to back a compromise. Mr. Boehner’s
challenge would be swelling that number to about 60 more, or something
approaching half the caucus.
Mr.
Boehner would have natural allies in business lobbying organizations
such as the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which provides Republicans with
crucial financial support.
They want Congress to act.
So
do some potential 2016 Republican presidential candidates, including
Jeb Bush, the former governor of Florida. An immigration deal before the
Republican presidential
primaries heat up would shrink one big obstacle to their chances in the
race.
To
most Capitol Hill veterans, this situation sounds fanciful. As speaker,
Mr. Boehner has bucked his caucus only when he lacked an alternative.
On immigration, inaction
offers the path of least resistance.
And
the few recent precedents will not encourage him. In 1978, Howard
Baker, then the Senate Republican leader, broke with most in his party
to help President Jimmy Carter
pass the Panama Canal Treaty — only to see his own presidential
ambitions fizzle afterward. In 1990, President George Bush bucked
rebellious conservatives and raised taxes to reduce the budget deficit,
which cost him a second term and earned lasting enmity
from the right.
After the Iraq war vote, Mr. Gephardt began an ill-fated 2004 presidential bid. The next year, he called his vote a mistake.
For more information, go to: www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com
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