What will Trump’s immigration policy really look like?

FIRST THINGS FIRST — President-elect Donald Trump is planning to make good on his campaign trail promise that immigration would be a day one priority in his second administration. Today, he appeared to confirm on social media that he would declare a national emergency to embark on a mass deportation campaign. But reshaping immigration policy — and sending hundreds of thousands of people out of the country at minimum — won’t be as simple as putting a pen to paper and ordering it to be done. Pro-immigration groups around the country are ready to stand up legal defenses. And Trump will have to contend with a judiciary that has been skeptical of his immigration actions in the past — most notably when he attempted to push through a travel ban targeting Muslim-majority countries (though the Supreme Court, in particular, looks considerably different than it did in 2017). It makes for a looming showdown as soon as Trump takes office. Republicans (and many Democrats as well) largely agree that immigration reform is necessary. But the question is how far to go. Some in Trump’s inner circle are pushing for large scale bans or scaling down legal immigration, in addition to mass deportations. Yet there are also Trump loyalists who believe there should be limits to how restrictive Trump’s policies will be, given that America is in desperate need of highly skilled workers from other places around the world. Nightly turned to POLITICO reporter Betsy Woodruff Swan, who recently has explored these topics in detail, to give us a better sense of what’s to come. This interview has been edited. What’s the biggest hurdle Trump is facing right now to his plans to overhaul immigration in the U.S.? Trump will quickly bump into a few logistical issues: the government’s capacity to detain immigrants and foreign countries’ resistance to repatriating people (especially those convicted of violent crimes). What would the kind of wholesale changes that Trump wants to make actually look like on the ground? To state the obvious, I’d expect significantly more arrests by ICE, probably more worksite enforcement (including targeting employers who hire undocumented workers), expanded detention capacity, and heightened pressure on local law enforcement agencies to cooperate on immigration enforcement. The immigration courts, which are part of the executive branch and housed in the Justice Department, will also face significant scrutiny from Trump’s White House immigration-focused personnel. Are there different factions within the incoming Trump administration who have different ideas about immigration priorities? The biggest split will likely involve visas for high tech workers. People with backgrounds on Wall Street and Silicon Valley have long argued that America’s high-tech workforce isn’t big enough to support demand, and that we need foreign workers to fill jobs. But the more restrictionist-minded advisers say that’s factually incorrect and that giving visas to tech workers drives down the wages. That fight is inevitable and it will pit two very powerful factions against each other — hardline anti-immigration advocates versus burgeoning tech interests among Trump loyalists. How will Trump’s plans affect U.S. relations in Latin America? The US will need to pressure Mexico to restart the “Remain in Mexico” policy that kept people seeking asylum in the U.S. from immediately being granted entry. We don’t know what Mexico will seek in return. The U.S. may also need to negotiate with Latin American countries to repatriate deportees. That can cause friction. Do his campaign promises hold much real chance of success? From your reporting, what looks like a flight of fancy right now, and what looks like it really will happen on Day 1? There are a series of executive actions Trump can take on Day One that will have real impact, including throwing out a memo [Secretary of Homeland Security Alejandro] Mayorkas issued that made ICE agents be more deliberative about who to deport. He can also quickly end temporary protection from deportation available to people from multiple countries –– including Haiti and Venezuela — who currently have Temporary Protected Status as immigrants in the U.S. due to armed conflicts in their home countries. And he can immediately stop using the CBP One app, which was designed to make it quicker and easier for people to seek asylum (though it’s drawn significant criticism across the board). His biggest constraints will be funding-related. For that he’ll need Congress. But congressional Republicans are likely to be very accommodating. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh. A message from AARP: America’s 48 million family caregivers spend over $7,000 a year to care for older parents, spouses and other loved ones. They need a tax credit. With a new Congress, it’s time to act on the Credit for Caring tax credit. What'd I Miss? — Trump confirms he will deploy the military for mass deportation plan: Donald Trump confirmed today that he plans to declare a national emergency and use the military for the mass deportations of immigrants in the country illegally. Trump posted “TRUE!!!” in response to conservative activist Tom Fitton, who wrote in his own Truth Social post about the incoming administration’s preparation to use the military for deportation efforts. As the president-elect plans to begin the process of deporting immigrants in the U.S. illegally in his first 100 days, Trump’s team is working to craft executive orders that can withstand legal challenges from immigration advocates to avoid a defeat like the one his 2017 Muslim ban faced. — Eastern Seaboard scrambles to deal with drought and fire: Governors in New York and New Jersey have begun warning their residents to save water as an unusual drought grips the region. Even with some rain in the forecast this week, it likely won’t be enough to bring relief. A bleak picture is only worsening. Both states’ governors have alluded to long-term forecasts that suggest the winter ahead may be drier than normal too. It is nothing like California, where wildfires routinely destroy hundreds of thousands of acres a year. But raging fires — which prompted local evacuations this weekend and smoke wafting into New York City — have given residents and political leaders alike another taste of West Coast life in a warming climate. Last year, the region’s air was dangerously polluted by smoke from fires in Canada. — Martin O’Malley announces bid as DNC chair race kicks off: The race is on for the next chair of the Democratic National Committee, and former Maryland Gov. Martin O’Malley is the first official entrant. O’Malley kicked off his bid today with a post on social media that said: “We must connect our Party with the most important place in America — the kitchen table of every family’s home. Jobs, Opportunity, and Economic Security for all. Getting things done. Hope. A 50 state strategy. Now.” O’Malley is resigning as head of the Social Security Administration, effective Nov. 29, to run for the role, he confirmed to POLITICO. For more information, visit us at https://www.beverlyhillsimmigrationlaw.com/.